PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 25 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTCFull timeBrentford Community StadiumFull-time recap
3–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBrentfordLiverpool
Shots17 shots/match18 shots/match▲
Shots on target8 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Possession34%66%
Corners5 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Liverpool have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Liverpool show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.7 shots/match▲ShotsBrentford · Liverpool15.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBrentfordLiverpoolBaseline
Shots10.7 shots/match15.6 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against13.2 shots/match11.1 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Liverpool have recorded the higher season possession share.

40.1%▲PossessionBrentford · Liverpool62.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 22.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBrentfordLiverpoolBaseline
Possession40.1%62.6%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Liverpool's recent record differs from the season

weak

Liverpool's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.78 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.78 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Brentford favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Liverpool in 5 · 8 too close

1.56 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 9/9▲1.78 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 9/91.56 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 9/9▲15.6 shots/match
13.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 9/9▲11.1 shots/match
4.44 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 9/94.56 shots/match
3.89 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 9/93.78 shots/match
40.1%Possessionseason · 9/962.6%
5.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/95.44 corners/match
4.33 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 9/95 corners/match
2 cards/matchCardsseason · 9/9▲1.89 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/99.22 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
22%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/922%
89%Scoring frequencyseason · 9/9▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brentford7.5
Liverpool97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brentford52.5
Liverpool85.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brentford34.2
Liverpool56.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brentford82.5
Liverpool57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brentford65
Liverpool32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brentford57.5
Liverpool65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brentford55.6
Liverpool63.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲16 shots/match
5.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
42.2%Possession5/561.2%
6.4 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/59 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 9 matches
1.56 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.78 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowed9/91.56 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.7 shots/matchShots9/9▲15.6 shots/match
4.44 shots/matchShots on target9/94.56 shots/match
40.1%Possession9/962.6%
5.33 corners/matchCorners9/95.44 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards9/91.89 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls9/99.22 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 9 matches
1.56 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.78 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowed9/91.56 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.7 shots/matchShots9/9▲15.6 shots/match
4.44 shots/matchShots on target9/94.56 shots/match
40.1%Possession9/962.6%
5.33 corners/matchCorners9/95.44 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards9/91.89 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls9/99.22 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.4 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
33.2%Possession5/565.6%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls5/510 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.15 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Oct 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBrentfordLiverpool
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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