PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeSelhurst ParkFull-time recap
3–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCrystal PalaceBournemouth
Shots20 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Possession52%48%
Corners6 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match16 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Crystal Palace's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Bournemouth have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Crystal Palace's recent record differs from the season

weak

Crystal Palace's last-five shots average is above their season average.

16.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots16.6 shots/match13.5 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Bournemouth have recorded the higher season possession share.

42.6%▲PossessionCrystal Palace · Bournemouth50.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricCrystal PalaceBournemouthBaseline
Possession42.6%50.6%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Crystal Palace favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Bournemouth in 4 · 5 too close

1.5 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 8/8▲1.75 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 8/81.38 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 8/812.4 shots/match
12.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/8▲11.4 shots/match
5.38 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/84.5 shots/match
3.38 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 8/84.25 shots/match
42.6%Possessionseason · 8/850.6%
3.63 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/85.63 corners/match
6 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 8/8▲3.88 corners/match
2.25 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 8/82.5 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/812 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
38%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/838%
75%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/8▲88%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Crystal Palace12.5
Bournemouth57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Crystal Palace81.7
Bournemouth70.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Crystal Palace58.3
Bournemouth39.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Crystal Palace97.5
Bournemouth67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace61.2
Bournemouth78.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace15
Bournemouth77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Crystal Palace60
Bournemouth72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.6 shots/match▲Shots5/511 shots/match
6.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.6 shots/match
45.8%Possession5/553.6%
5 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1.75 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.38 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shots8/812.4 shots/match
5.38 shots/match▲Shots on target8/84.5 shots/match
42.6%Possession8/850.6%
3.63 corners/matchCorners8/85.63 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards8/82.5 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls8/812 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1.75 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.38 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shots8/812.4 shots/match
5.38 shots/match▲Shots on target8/84.5 shots/match
42.6%Possession8/850.6%
3.63 corners/matchCorners8/85.63 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards8/82.5 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls8/812 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲2 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/42.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.5 shots/match▲Shots4/412.5 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target4/44.75 shots/match
44.5%Possession4/446.3%
3.5 corners/matchCorners4/46 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards4/43 cards/match
9.75 fouls/matchFouls4/413 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.8 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCrystal PalaceBournemouth
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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