PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 26 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeVitality StadiumFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBournemouthNottingham Forest
Shots13 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession52%48%
Corners6 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls17 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.56 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.56 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest have a visible away split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.8 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.8 shots/match11.1 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bournemouth favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 1 · 4 too close

1.78 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 9/90.56 goals/match
1.22 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 9/91.89 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 9/911.1 shots/match
11 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 9/913 shots/match
4.56 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 9/93.78 shots/match
4.22 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 9/95.33 shots/match
50.8%Possessionseason · 9/954.6%
5.67 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/94.67 corners/match
3.89 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 9/95 corners/match
2.56 cards/matchCardsseason · 9/9▲1.89 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/911.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
44%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/90%
89%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 9/933%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bournemouth62.5
Nottingham Forest72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bournemouth69.2
Nottingham Forest31.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bournemouth55.8
Nottingham Forest16.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bournemouth52.5
Nottingham Forest17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth86.2
Nottingham Forest57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth77.5
Nottingham Forest42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bournemouth72.5
Nottingham Forest48.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.2 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.8 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/54.8 shots/match
53.8%Possession5/555%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 9 matches
1.78 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.56 goals/match
1.22 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.89 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/match▲Shots9/911.1 shots/match
4.56 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.78 shots/match
50.8%Possession9/954.6%
5.67 corners/matchCorners9/94.67 corners/match
2.56 cards/matchCards9/91.89 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls9/911.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 9 matches
1.78 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.56 goals/match
1.22 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.89 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/match▲Shots9/911.1 shots/match
4.56 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.78 shots/match
50.8%Possession9/954.6%
5.67 corners/matchCorners9/94.67 corners/match
2.56 cards/matchCards9/91.89 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls9/911.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.4 goals/match
0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/match▲Shots5/58.8 shots/match
4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
54.4%Possession5/552.8%
5.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.1 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBournemouthNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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