PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 26 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeEmirates StadiumFull-time recap

Arsenal

WDWWW
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricArsenalCrystal Palace
Shots10 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession60%40%
Corners4 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls6 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match0 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

weak

Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.78 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.78 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share.

58.8%▲PossessionArsenal · Crystal Palace42.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricArsenalCrystal PalaceBaseline
Possession58.8%42.3%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Arsenal show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Arsenal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.8 shots/match▲ShotsArsenal · Crystal Palace12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricArsenalCrystal PalaceBaseline
Shots14.8 shots/match12.8 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against8 shots/match11.9 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Crystal Palace in 1 · 4 too close

1.78 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 9/91.33 goals/match
0.33 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 9/91 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 9/912.8 shots/match
8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 9/911.9 shots/match
4.11 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 9/9▲4.89 shots/match
2.11 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 9/93.33 shots/match
58.8%Possessionseason · 9/942.3%
7.44 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/93.56 corners/match
3.44 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 9/95.78 corners/match
1 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 9/92 cards/match
9.89 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/910.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
67%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/933%
89%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 9/967%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal87.5
Crystal Palace17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal74.2
Crystal Palace68.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal97.5
Crystal Palace64.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal67.5
Crystal Palace97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal17.5
Crystal Palace61.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal97.5
Crystal Palace12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal68.8
Crystal Palace54.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.8 shots/matchShots5/515.2 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.2 shots/match
64.2%Possession5/542.6%
9 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
0.4 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
8.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 9 matches
1.78 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.33 goals/match
0.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.8 shots/match▲Shots9/912.8 shots/match
4.11 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲4.89 shots/match
58.8%Possession9/942.3%
7.44 corners/matchCorners9/93.56 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards9/92 cards/match
9.89 fouls/matchFouls9/910.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 9 matches
1.78 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.33 goals/match
0.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.8 shots/match▲Shots9/912.8 shots/match
4.11 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲4.89 shots/match
58.8%Possession9/942.3%
7.44 corners/matchCorners9/93.56 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards9/92 cards/match
9.89 fouls/matchFouls9/910.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
0.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/50.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.4 shots/match▲Shots5/511.4 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/54 shots/match
63.4%Possession5/540.6%
6.6 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match
0.4 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
9.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsArsenalCrystal Palace
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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