PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 26 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeVilla ParkFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAston VillaManchester City
Shots9 shots/match18 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession47%53%
Corners5 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match16 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Aston Villa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Aston Villa show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Aston Villa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.3 shots/match▲ShotsAston Villa · Manchester City13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAston VillaManchester CityBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match13.7 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against12.1 shots/match9.56 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Manchester City in 9 · 5 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 9/9▲1.89 goals/match
0.89 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 9/9▲0.78 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 9/9▲13.7 shots/match
12.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 9/9▲9.56 shots/match
3.11 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 9/9▲4.78 shots/match
3.11 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 9/93 shots/match
54.9%Possessionseason · 9/958.1%
5.44 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/95.11 corners/match
5.44 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 9/9▲4.11 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCardsseason · 9/9▲1.56 cards/match
9.56 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/99 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/9▲44%
56%Scoring frequencyseason · 9/9▲78%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa77.5
Manchester City82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa20
Manchester City85
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa65
Manchester City90.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa2.5
Manchester City47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa27.5
Manchester City11.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa67.5
Manchester City52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa30
Manchester City54.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.8 goals/match
0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.6 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.2 shots/match
53.6%Possession5/559.2%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
8.4 fouls/matchFouls5/59 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 9 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.89 goals/match
0.89 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲0.78 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShots9/9▲13.7 shots/match
3.11 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲4.78 shots/match
54.9%Possession9/958.1%
5.44 corners/matchCorners9/95.11 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards9/91.56 cards/match
9.56 fouls/matchFouls9/99 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 9 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.89 goals/match
0.89 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲0.78 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShots9/9▲13.7 shots/match
3.11 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲4.78 shots/match
54.9%Possession9/958.1%
5.44 corners/matchCorners9/95.11 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards9/91.56 cards/match
9.56 fouls/matchFouls9/99 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲12 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
49.6%Possession5/555.4%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
9.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAston VillaManchester City
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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