PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 26 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeMolineux StadiumFull-time recap

Wolves

LLDDL
2–3Full-time recap

Burnley

LDLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricWolvesBurnley
Shots15 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match7 shots/match
Possession57%43%
Corners4 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Wolves's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Wolves's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Wolves's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Wolves's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.78 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match0.78 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Wolves show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Wolves's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.8 shots/match▲ShotsWolves · Burnley7.89 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricWolvesBurnleyBaseline
Shots10.8 shots/match7.89 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against11.9 shots/match18.3 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Wolves have recorded the higher season possession share.

49.8%▲PossessionWolves · Burnley35.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricWolvesBurnleyBaseline
Possession49.8%35.4%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Wolves favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Burnley in 5 · 4 too close

0.78 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 9/9▲1.33 goals/match
2.11 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 9/9▲1.89 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 9/97.89 shots/match
11.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 9/918.3 shots/match
3.67 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 9/93.11 shots/match
4.22 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 9/95.67 shots/match
49.8%Possessionseason · 9/935.4%
3.78 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/92.78 corners/match
5.22 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 9/96.56 corners/match
1.78 cards/matchCardsseason · 9/9▲1.67 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/99.56 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/9▲22%
56%Scoring frequencyseason · 9/9▲78%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Wolves47.5
Burnley2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Wolves28.3
Burnley22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Wolves29.2
Burnley6.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Wolves27.5
Burnley32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Wolves70
Burnley27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Wolves20
Burnley2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Wolves46.9
Burnley10
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/match▲Shots5/58.2 shots/match
4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
52.6%Possession5/537.4%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 9 matches
0.78 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.33 goals/match
2.11 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲1.89 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/match▲Shots9/97.89 shots/match
3.67 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.11 shots/match
49.8%Possession9/935.4%
3.78 corners/matchCorners9/92.78 corners/match
1.78 cards/matchCards9/91.67 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls9/99.56 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 9 matches
0.78 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.33 goals/match
2.11 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲1.89 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/match▲Shots9/97.89 shots/match
3.67 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.11 shots/match
49.8%Possession9/935.4%
3.78 corners/matchCorners9/92.78 corners/match
1.78 cards/matchCards9/91.67 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls9/99.56 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
2.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/53 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/match▲Shots5/59 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
51.2%Possession5/538%
3.2 corners/matchCorners5/53 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/59.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsWolvesBurnley
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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