PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeTurf MoorFull-time recap

Burnley

DLLWW
0–2Full-time recap

Arsenal

DWWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBurnleyArsenal
Shots3 shots/match12 shots/match▲
Shots on target0 shots/match8 shots/match▲
Possession46%54%
Corners1 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Arsenal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Arsenal show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Arsenal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

7.4 shots/match▲ShotsBurnley · Arsenal14.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBurnleyArsenalBaseline
Shots7.4 shots/match14.5 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against17.7 shots/match7.5 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share.

36.5%▲PossessionBurnley · Arsenal58.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBurnleyArsenalBaseline
Possession36.5%58.3%50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Burnley have a visible home split

moderate

Burnley's home-only shot average is below their full-season average.

5.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season7.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots5.8 shots/match7.4 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Burnley favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Arsenal in 10 · 4 too close

1.2 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 10/10▲1.8 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 10/10▲0.3 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
7.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 10/10▲14.5 shots/match
17.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 10/10▲7.5 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 10/10▲4.5 shots/match
5.9 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 10/10▲1.9 shots/match
36.5%Possessionseason · 10/1058.3%
2.6 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/107.3 corners/match
6.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/10▲3.2 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCardsseason · 10/10▲1 cards/match
9.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1010.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/10▲70%
70%Scoring frequencyseason · 10/10▲90%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Burnley2.5
Arsenal87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Burnley16.7
Arsenal80
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Burnley6.7
Arsenal97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Burnley17.5
Arsenal72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Burnley35
Arsenal20
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Burnley2.5
Arsenal97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Burnley10
Arsenal71.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
6.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.8 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.6 shots/match
39.2%Possession5/561.6%
2.2 corners/matchCorners5/58 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/50.4 cards/match
9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/59.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
7.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.5 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.5 shots/match
36.5%Possession10/1058.3%
2.6 corners/matchCorners10/107.3 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/101 cards/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
7.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.5 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.5 shots/match
36.5%Possession10/1058.3%
2.6 corners/matchCorners10/107.3 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/101 cards/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.2 goals/match
0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
5.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.6 shots/match
2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.8 shots/match
35%Possession5/553.2%
2.2 corners/matchCorners5/58 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.04 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBurnleyArsenal
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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