PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeOld TraffordFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricManchester UnitedSunderland
Shots15 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession50%50%
Corners2 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Manchester United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Manchester United show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.7 shots/match▲ShotsManchester United · Sunderland10 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricManchester UnitedSunderlandBaseline
Shots15.7 shots/match10 shots/match11.3 shots/match
Shots against9.14 shots/match12.7 shots/match11.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Manchester United's recent record differs from the season

weak

Manchester United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.29 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.29 goals/match1.23 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Manchester United have a visible home split

weak

Manchester United's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season15.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots18.5 shots/match15.7 shots/match11.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Manchester United favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Sunderland in 2 · 4 too close

1.29 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 7/71 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/7▲0.86 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
15.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 7/710 shots/match
9.14 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/712.7 shots/match
4.86 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 7/72.71 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 7/74.29 shots/match
53.3%Possessionseason · 7/743.9%
4.14 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/73.86 corners/match
4 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/74.86 corners/match
1.29 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 7/72 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/79.14 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/7▲43%
71%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 7/757%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester United62.5
Sunderland17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester United82.5
Sunderland23.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester United54.2
Sunderland39.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester United92.5
Sunderland47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester United16.2
Sunderland31.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester United32.5
Sunderland22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester United63.8
Sunderland18.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.6 shots/match▲Shots5/510.2 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.6 shots/match
52.8%Possession5/542.4%
4 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
1.29 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲0.86 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.7 shots/match▲Shots7/710 shots/match
4.86 shots/match▲Shots on target7/72.71 shots/match
53.3%Possession7/743.9%
4.14 corners/matchCorners7/73.86 corners/match
1.29 cards/matchCards7/72 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls7/79.14 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
1.29 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲0.86 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.7 shots/match▲Shots7/710 shots/match
4.86 shots/match▲Shots on target7/72.71 shots/match
53.3%Possession7/743.9%
4.14 corners/matchCorners7/73.86 corners/match
1.29 cards/matchCards7/72 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls7/79.14 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
1.75 goals/match▲Goals scored4/40.25 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed4/41 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18.5 shots/match▲Shots4/48.5 shots/match
5.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/41.75 shots/match
53.5%Possession4/446.8%
4.25 corners/matchCorners4/43.25 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards4/42 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls4/47.75 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.9 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsManchester UnitedSunderland
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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