PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 16:30 UTCFull timeStamford BridgeFull-time recap

Chelsea

WWDLL
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricChelseaLiverpool
Shots12 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession53%47%
Corners7 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Liverpool's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Liverpool's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Liverpool's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.86 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.86 goals/match1.23 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Liverpool show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.9 shots/match▲ShotsChelsea · Liverpool14.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricChelseaLiverpoolBaseline
Shots12.9 shots/match14.7 shots/match11.3 shots/match
Shots against10.9 shots/match10.1 shots/match11.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Chelsea favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Liverpool in 5 · 7 too close

1.86 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/71.86 goals/match
1.29 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/71.29 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/7▲14.7 shots/match
10.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 7/7▲10.1 shots/match
4.57 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 7/74.29 shots/match
3.43 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/7▲3.14 shots/match
60.4%Possessionseason · 7/761.9%
6.43 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/75.14 corners/match
4.57 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/75.14 corners/match
2.43 cards/matchCardsseason · 7/7▲2.14 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/79.29 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/729%
86%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/7▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chelsea92.5
Liverpool97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chelsea80.8
Liverpool80.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chelsea58.3
Liverpool70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chelsea32.5
Liverpool57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chelsea60
Liverpool38.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chelsea92.5
Liverpool57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chelsea71.2
Liverpool58.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.8 shots/match
4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match
58.4%Possession5/562%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/58.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
1.86 goals/matchGoals scored7/71.86 goals/match
1.29 goals/matchGoals allowed7/71.29 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.9 shots/matchShots7/7▲14.7 shots/match
4.57 shots/match▲Shots on target7/74.29 shots/match
60.4%Possession7/761.9%
6.43 corners/matchCorners7/75.14 corners/match
2.43 cards/matchCards7/72.14 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls7/79.29 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
1.86 goals/matchGoals scored7/71.86 goals/match
1.29 goals/matchGoals allowed7/71.29 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.9 shots/matchShots7/7▲14.7 shots/match
4.57 shots/match▲Shots on target7/74.29 shots/match
60.4%Possession7/761.9%
6.43 corners/matchCorners7/75.14 corners/match
2.43 cards/matchCards7/72.14 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls7/79.29 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲1.5 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.3 shots/matchShots4/4▲16 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/43.5 shots/match
59.8%Possession4/465.5%
7.25 corners/matchCorners4/45.5 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/42.5 cards/match
9.75 fouls/matchFouls4/410 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsChelseaLiverpool
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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