PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 27 Sept 2025, 16:30 UTCFull timeCity GroundFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNottingham ForestSunderland
Shots22 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession65%35%
Corners7 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match6 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.83 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.83 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest have a visible home split

weak

Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.7 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.7 shots/match12.5 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Nottingham Forest have recorded the higher season possession share.

57.3%▲PossessionNottingham Forest · Sunderland42.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNottingham ForestSunderlandBaseline
Possession57.3%42.8%50.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Sunderland in 5 · 5 too close

0.83 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 6/6▲1.17 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 6/6▲0.67 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 6/610.3 shots/match
11.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 6/612.3 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 6/62.67 shots/match
4.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/6▲4 shots/match
57.3%Possessionseason · 6/642.8%
5.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/64 corners/match
4.83 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 6/65.33 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCardsseason · 6/61.67 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/68.67 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/6▲50%
50%Scoring frequencyseason · 6/6▲67%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest77.5
Sunderland17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest47.5
Sunderland29.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest27.5
Sunderland48.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest42.5
Sunderland67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest46.2
Sunderland21.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest57.5
Sunderland22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest60
Sunderland19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲0.8 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/match▲Shots5/510.4 shots/match
3.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.2 shots/match
58%Possession5/544%
5.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls5/58.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

6 / 6 matches
0.83 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲1.17 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲0.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/match▲Shots6/610.3 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target6/62.67 shots/match
57.3%Possession6/642.8%
5.33 corners/matchCorners6/64 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards6/61.67 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls6/68.67 fouls/match

Window

Season

6 / 6 matches
0.83 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲1.17 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲0.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/match▲Shots6/610.3 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target6/62.67 shots/match
57.3%Possession6/642.8%
5.33 corners/matchCorners6/64 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards6/61.67 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls6/68.67 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30.33 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲0.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.7 shots/match▲Shots3/38.67 shots/match
4.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/31.33 shots/match
59%Possession3/345.7%
7 corners/matchCorners3/33.33 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards3/31.33 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls3/36.33 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.15 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Sept 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNottingham ForestSunderland
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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