PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 27 Sept 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeSelhurst ParkFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCrystal PalaceLiverpool
Shots16 shots/match20 shots/match▲
Shots on target7 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession28%72%
Corners2 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Liverpool have recorded the higher season possession share. A second useful context is: Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Liverpool have recorded the higher season possession share.

39.8%▲PossessionCrystal Palace · Liverpool64.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 24.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricCrystal PalaceLiverpoolBaseline
Possession39.8%64.3%50.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Liverpool show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.2 shots/match▲ShotsCrystal Palace · Liverpool15.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCrystal PalaceLiverpoolBaseline
Shots12.2 shots/match15.2 shots/match11.5 shots/match
Shots against12.5 shots/match9.83 shots/match11.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Crystal Palace's recent record differs from the season

weak

Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.33 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Crystal Palace favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Liverpool in 6 · 5 too close

1.33 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 6/6▲2 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 6/61.17 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 6/6▲15.2 shots/match
12.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/6▲9.83 shots/match
4.67 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 6/64.67 shots/match
2.5 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 6/62.67 shots/match
39.8%Possessionseason · 6/664.3%
3.17 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/65.67 corners/match
6.83 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 6/6▲4.83 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCardsseason · 6/6▲2.17 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/69.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/633%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 6/6▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Crystal Palace7.5
Liverpool97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Crystal Palace70.8
Liverpool90
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Crystal Palace74.2
Liverpool72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Crystal Palace97.5
Liverpool52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace55
Liverpool42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace7.5
Liverpool62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Crystal Palace48.1
Liverpool66.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.6 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.4 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
42.2%Possession5/565%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls5/510 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

6 / 6 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲2 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.17 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShots6/6▲15.2 shots/match
4.67 shots/matchShots on target6/64.67 shots/match
39.8%Possession6/664.3%
3.17 corners/matchCorners6/65.67 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards6/62.17 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls6/69.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

6 / 6 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲2 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.17 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShots6/6▲15.2 shots/match
4.67 shots/matchShots on target6/64.67 shots/match
39.8%Possession6/664.3%
3.17 corners/matchCorners6/65.67 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards6/62.17 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls6/69.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲1.67 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/31.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShots3/3▲17.3 shots/match
5.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/34 shots/match
42%Possession3/371.7%
2.67 corners/matchCorners3/36.67 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards3/32.67 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls3/310.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Sept 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCrystal PalaceLiverpool
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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