Premier League · 2025Sat, 27 Sept 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeElland RoadFull-time recap

Leeds

WLDLW

2–2Full-time recap

Bournemouth

LWWWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Leeds	Bournemouth
Shots	19 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Possession	41%	59%
Corners	7 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	13 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Leeds's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Leeds's last-five shots average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Leeds have a visible home split

weak

Leeds's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.7 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	16.7 shots/match	11.5 shots/match	11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Leeds's recent record differs from the season

weak

Leeds's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.6 shots/match	11.5 shots/match	11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Leeds favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Bournemouth in 7 · 5 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 6/6▲1.33 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 6/6▲1.17 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

11.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 6/6▲13.3 shots/match

11 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/6▲9.83 shots/match

3.33 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 6/6▲4.17 shots/match

3.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/63.83 shots/match

43.3%Possessionseason · 6/650.5%

4 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/66 corners/match

3.33 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 6/63.67 corners/match

1.33 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 6/62.67 cards/match

10.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/612 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

33%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/6▲50%

50%Scoring frequencyseason · 6/6▲83%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Leeds22.5

Bournemouth47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Leeds37.5

Bournemouth71.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Leeds50.8

Bournemouth57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Leeds87.5

Bournemouth82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Leeds31.2

Bournemouth77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Leeds27.5

Bournemouth75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Leeds40.6

Bournemouth74.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.2 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

9.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲14 shots/match

3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.4 shots/match

41.2%Possession5/552.8%

3.4 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match

1.6 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match

11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

6 / 6 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲1.33 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲1.17 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.5 shots/matchShots6/6▲13.3 shots/match

3.33 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲4.17 shots/match

43.3%Possession6/650.5%

4 corners/matchCorners6/66 corners/match

1.33 cards/matchCards6/62.67 cards/match

10.5 fouls/matchFouls6/612 fouls/match

Window

Season

6 / 6 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲1.33 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲1.17 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.5 shots/matchShots6/6▲13.3 shots/match

3.33 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲4.17 shots/match

43.3%Possession6/650.5%

4 corners/matchCorners6/66 corners/match

1.33 cards/matchCards6/62.67 cards/match

10.5 fouls/matchFouls6/612 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲1.67 goals/match

0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

16.7 shots/match▲Shots3/314 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲4.67 shots/match

46%Possession3/345.7%

6.33 corners/matchCorners3/36.33 corners/match

1 cards/matchCards3/32.67 cards/match

9.33 fouls/matchFouls3/312 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.04 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples6 / 6home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Sept 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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