Premier League · 2025Sun, 21 Sept 2025, 13:00 UTCFull timeStadium of LightFull-time recap

Sunderland

WLWD

1–1Full-time recap

Aston Villa

DLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Sunderland	Aston Villa
Shots	14 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Possession	29%	71%
Corners	6 corners/match	5 corners/match
Fouls	14 fouls/match	8 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sunderland's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Aston Villa have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Sunderland have a visible home split

weak

Sunderland's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season10.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	12 shots/match	10.2 shots/match	10.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Aston Villa have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.4%▲PossessionSunderland · Aston Villa59.4%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.0 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Sunderland	Aston Villa	Baseline
Possession	44.4%	59.4%	49.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Sunderland favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 1 · 7 too close

1.2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 5/50.2 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 5/51 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

10.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 5/510.4 shots/match

10.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 5/513 shots/match

2.6 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 5/52.4 shots/match

3.6 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 5/5▲3 shots/match

44.4%Possessionseason · 5/559.4%

4 corners/matchCornersseason · 5/56 corners/match

5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 5/55 corners/match

1.6 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 5/52 cards/match

9.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 5/510.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

40%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 5/540%

60%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 5/520%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Sunderland27.5

Aston Villa87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Sunderland34.2

Aston Villa15.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Sunderland63.3

Aston Villa49.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Sunderland62.5

Aston Villa2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Sunderland21.2

Aston Villa51.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Sunderland35

Aston Villa72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Sunderland22.5

Aston Villa40

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.2 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

10.2 shots/matchShots5/510.4 shots/match

2.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match

44.4%Possession5/559.4%

4 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match

1.6 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match

9.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.2 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

10.2 shots/matchShots5/510.4 shots/match

2.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match

44.4%Possession5/559.4%

4 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match

1.6 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match

9.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.2 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

10.2 shots/matchShots5/510.4 shots/match

2.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match

44.4%Possession5/559.4%

4 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match

1.6 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match

9.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30.33 goals/match

0.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/30.67 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12 shots/matchShots3/312 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target3/31.67 shots/match

40%Possession3/366.3%

4.67 corners/matchCorners3/35.67 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards3/32 cards/match

11 fouls/matchFouls3/310.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.96 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples5 / 5home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Sept 2025, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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