PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 21 Sept 2025, 15:30 UTCFull timeEmirates StadiumFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricArsenalManchester City
Shots12 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match3 shots/match
Possession67%33%
Corners11 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Arsenal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Arsenal have a visible home split

weak

Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.3 shots/match13.2 shots/match10.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Arsenal show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Arsenal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.2 shots/match▲ShotsArsenal · Manchester City11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricArsenalManchester CityBaseline
Shots13.2 shots/match11 shots/match10.7 shots/match
Shots against8.8 shots/match11.4 shots/match10.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Manchester City in 2 · 5 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 5/51.8 goals/match
0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 5/51 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 5/511 shots/match
8.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 5/511.4 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 5/5▲4 shots/match
3 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 5/54 shots/match
55%Possessionseason · 5/552%
6.6 corners/matchCornersseason · 5/53.4 corners/match
2.4 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 5/54.8 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCardsseason · 5/5▲1.4 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 5/59.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
60%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 5/540%
80%Scoring frequencyseason · 5/580%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal72.5
Manchester City62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal71.7
Manchester City65.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal84.2
Manchester City41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal72.5
Manchester City37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal48.8
Manchester City16.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal95
Manchester City20
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal71.2
Manchester City36.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.8 goals/match
0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shots5/511 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4 shots/match
55%Possession5/552%
6.6 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/59.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.8 goals/match
0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shots5/511 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4 shots/match
55%Possession5/552%
6.6 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/59.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.8 goals/match
0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shots5/511 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4 shots/match
55%Possession5/552%
6.6 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/59.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches
3 goals/match▲Goals scored3/32 goals/match
0.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/31 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.3 shots/match▲Shots3/310.7 shots/match
4.33 shots/match▲Shots on target3/33.33 shots/match
63%Possession3/351.3%
7 corners/matchCorners3/32.67 corners/match
0.67 cards/matchCards3/32 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls3/310.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.17 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Sept 2025, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsArsenalManchester City
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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