PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 27 Sept 2025, 11:30 UTCFull timeBrentford Community StadiumFull-time recap
3–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBrentfordManchester United
Shots10 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target8 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Possession44%56%
Corners4 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Manchester United's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Manchester United show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

8.5 shots/match▲ShotsBrentford · Manchester United15.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBrentfordManchester UnitedBaseline
Shots8.5 shots/match15.8 shots/match11.1 shots/match
Shots against14 shots/match9.33 shots/match11.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Manchester United have a visible away split

weak

Manchester United's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season15.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12 shots/match15.8 shots/match11.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Manchester United's recent record differs from the season

weak

Manchester United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.17 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Brentford favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Manchester United in 5 · 6 too close

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 6/61.17 goals/match
1.83 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 6/61.83 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
8.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 6/6▲15.8 shots/match
14 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/6▲9.33 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 6/6▲4.67 shots/match
4.17 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/64.17 shots/match
40.2%Possessionseason · 6/653.8%
5 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/64.5 corners/match
4.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 6/6▲4.17 corners/match
1.83 cards/matchCardsseason · 6/6▲1.33 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/610 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
17%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/60%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 6/667%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brentford12.5
Manchester United62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brentford44.2
Manchester United75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brentford17.5
Manchester United44.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brentford32.5
Manchester United92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brentford65
Manchester United22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brentford55
Manchester United45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brentford50
Manchester United65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.6 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/54.2 shots/match
39%Possession5/552.4%
5 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

6 / 6 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61.17 goals/match
1.83 goals/matchGoals allowed6/61.83 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.5 shots/matchShots6/6▲15.8 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲4.67 shots/match
40.2%Possession6/653.8%
5 corners/matchCorners6/64.5 corners/match
1.83 cards/matchCards6/61.33 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls6/610 fouls/match

Window

Season

6 / 6 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61.17 goals/match
1.83 goals/matchGoals allowed6/61.83 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.5 shots/matchShots6/6▲15.8 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲4.67 shots/match
40.2%Possession6/653.8%
5 corners/matchCorners6/64.5 corners/match
1.83 cards/matchCards6/61.33 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls6/610 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30.67 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.67 shots/matchShots3/3▲12 shots/match
4.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/33.67 shots/match
34%Possession3/353%
3.67 corners/matchCorners3/34 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards3/31 cards/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls3/39.33 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.69 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.79 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Sept 2025, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBrentfordManchester United
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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