PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 20 Sept 2025, 16:30 UTCFull timeOld TraffordFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricManchester UnitedChelsea
Shots11 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession41%59%
Corners5 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲5 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester United's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Manchester United have a visible home split

weak

Manchester United's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

19.7 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season16.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots19.7 shots/match16.2 shots/match11 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Manchester United show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.2 shots/match▲ShotsManchester United · Chelsea13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricManchester UnitedChelseaBaseline
Shots16.2 shots/match13 shots/match11 shots/match
Shots against9.2 shots/match10.4 shots/match10.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.

53.4%▲PossessionManchester United · Chelsea62%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricManchester UnitedChelseaBaseline
Possession53.4%62%49.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Manchester United favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Chelsea in 4 · 5 too close

1.2 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 5/5▲2 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
16.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 5/513 shots/match
9.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 5/510.4 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 5/54.6 shots/match
3.4 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 5/53.8 shots/match
53.4%Possessionseason · 5/562%
5 corners/matchCornersseason · 5/56.6 corners/match
4.2 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 5/54.6 corners/match
1.2 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 5/52.6 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 5/510.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 5/5▲40%
60%Scoring frequencyseason · 5/5▲80%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester United67.5
Chelsea92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester United75
Chelsea83.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester United56.7
Chelsea55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester United97.5
Chelsea32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester United20
Chelsea67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester United50
Chelsea87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester United63.1
Chelsea76.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.2 shots/match▲Shots5/513 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target5/54.6 shots/match
53.4%Possession5/562%
5 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.2 shots/match▲Shots5/513 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target5/54.6 shots/match
53.4%Possession5/562%
5 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.2 shots/match▲Shots5/513 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target5/54.6 shots/match
53.4%Possession5/562%
5 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches
1.67 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲2.67 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/31.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.7 shots/match▲Shots3/311 shots/match
5.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/34.67 shots/match
54.7%Possession3/361.3%
5 corners/matchCorners3/35.33 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards3/33 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls3/311 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.9 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Sept 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsManchester UnitedChelsea
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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