PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 20 Sept 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeTurf MoorFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBurnleyNottingham Forest
Shots12 shots/match17 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match8 shots/match▲
Possession37%63%
Corners4 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Nottingham Forest show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

8.4 shots/match▲ShotsBurnley · Nottingham Forest10.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBurnleyNottingham ForestBaseline
Shots8.4 shots/match10.6 shots/match11 shots/match
Shots against19 shots/match11.6 shots/match10.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Nottingham Forest have recorded the higher season possession share.

33.8%▲PossessionBurnley · Nottingham Forest55.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 22.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBurnleyNottingham ForestBaseline
Possession33.8%55.8%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Burnley favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 5 · 7 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 5/51 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
8.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 5/5▲10.6 shots/match
19 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 5/5▲11.6 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 5/5▲3.6 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 5/55 shots/match
33.8%Possessionseason · 5/555.8%
3 corners/matchCornersseason · 5/55 corners/match
6.8 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 5/5▲5 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCardsseason · 5/5▲1.2 cards/match
9.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 5/510.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
20%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 5/50%
60%Scoring frequencyseason · 5/560%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Burnley2.5
Nottingham Forest72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Burnley20.8
Nottingham Forest43.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Burnley11.7
Nottingham Forest18.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Burnley72.5
Nottingham Forest12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Burnley33.8
Nottingham Forest31.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Burnley5
Nottingham Forest55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Burnley13.1
Nottingham Forest50.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/51 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲10.6 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.6 shots/match
33.8%Possession5/555.8%
3 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match
9.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/51 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲10.6 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.6 shots/match
33.8%Possession5/555.8%
3 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match
9.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/51 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲10.6 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.6 shots/match
33.8%Possession5/555.8%
3 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match
9.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30.67 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/31.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
7.33 shots/matchShots3/3▲10.3 shots/match
2.33 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲3.33 shots/match
32.7%Possession3/355.7%
3 corners/matchCorners3/33.67 corners/match
1.33 cards/matchCards3/31.67 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls3/311 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Sept 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBurnleyNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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