PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 15:30 UTCFull timeBrentford Community StadiumFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBrentfordManchester City
Shots6 shots/match10 shots/match▲
Shots on target1 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession30%70%
Corners3 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match6 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brentford's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Brentford show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Brentford's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

8.14 shots/match▲ShotsBrentford · Manchester City12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBrentfordManchester CityBaseline
Shots8.14 shots/match12.3 shots/match11.6 shots/match
Shots against13.4 shots/match10.3 shots/match11.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

38.7%▲PossessionBrentford · Manchester City57%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 18.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBrentfordManchester CityBaseline
Possession38.7%57%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Brentford favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Manchester City in 8 · 6 too close

1.29 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/7▲2.14 goals/match
1.71 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/7▲0.86 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
8.14 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/7▲12.3 shots/match
13.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 7/7▲10.3 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲4.57 shots/match
4.14 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/7▲3.29 shots/match
38.7%Possessionseason · 7/757%
4.71 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/74.14 corners/match
4.14 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 7/74.14 corners/match
2 cards/matchCardsseason · 7/7▲1.43 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/78.14 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/7▲43%
86%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/786%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brentford7.5
Manchester City77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brentford33.3
Manchester City83.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brentford20.8
Manchester City71.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brentford27.5
Manchester City37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brentford63.8
Manchester City11.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brentford55
Manchester City35
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brentford45.6
Manchester City47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
7.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.2 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.8 shots/match
40.2%Possession5/556%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls5/58.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
1.29 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲2.14 goals/match
1.71 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲0.86 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.14 shots/matchShots7/7▲12.3 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲4.57 shots/match
38.7%Possession7/757%
4.71 corners/matchCorners7/74.14 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards7/71.43 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls7/78.14 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
1.29 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲2.14 goals/match
1.71 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲0.86 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.14 shots/matchShots7/7▲12.3 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲4.57 shots/match
38.7%Possession7/757%
4.71 corners/matchCorners7/74.14 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards7/71.43 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls7/78.14 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲1.75 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲0.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8 shots/matchShots4/4▲10.5 shots/match
3.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/43.5 shots/match
33%Possession4/456%
3.5 corners/matchCorners4/42.5 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards4/42 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls4/49.25 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.17 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.06 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBrentfordManchester City
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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