PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 13:00 UTCFull timeVilla ParkFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

Burnley

WLLDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAston VillaBurnley
Shots15 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession55%45%
Corners6 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Aston Villa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.86 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.86 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Aston Villa show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Aston Villa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.9 shots/match▲ShotsAston Villa · Burnley8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAston VillaBurnleyBaseline
Shots10.9 shots/match8 shots/match11.6 shots/match
Shots against11.6 shots/match18.7 shots/match11.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Aston Villa have recorded the higher season possession share.

57.1%▲PossessionAston Villa · Burnley35%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 22.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAston VillaBurnleyBaseline
Possession57.1%35%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Burnley in 3 · 4 too close

0.86 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/7▲1 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 7/72.14 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 7/78 shots/match
11.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/718.7 shots/match
3.29 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 7/72.57 shots/match
3 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 7/75.71 shots/match
57.1%Possessionseason · 7/735%
5.43 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/73 corners/match
5.29 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/77.14 corners/match
2 cards/matchCardsseason · 7/7▲1.86 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/79.86 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/714%
43%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/7▲71%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa82.5
Burnley2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa22.5
Burnley12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa68.3
Burnley4.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa2.5
Burnley52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa36.2
Burnley25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa67.5
Burnley2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa36.2
Burnley6.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/match▲Shots5/57 shots/match
3.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match
56.8%Possession5/534%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/52.4 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
0.86 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72.14 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.9 shots/match▲Shots7/78 shots/match
3.29 shots/match▲Shots on target7/72.57 shots/match
57.1%Possession7/735%
5.43 corners/matchCorners7/73 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards7/71.86 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls7/79.86 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
0.86 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72.14 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.9 shots/match▲Shots7/78 shots/match
3.29 shots/match▲Shots on target7/72.57 shots/match
57.1%Possession7/735%
5.43 corners/matchCorners7/73 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards7/71.86 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls7/79.86 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
1.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/43.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10 shots/match▲Shots4/48.5 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/42.75 shots/match
50.3%Possession4/436.8%
5.25 corners/matchCorners4/43 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/42.25 cards/match
9.75 fouls/matchFouls4/49.75 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.96 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAston VillaBurnley
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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