PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 13:00 UTCFull timeSt. James' ParkFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNewcastleNottingham Forest
Shots18 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession51%49%
Corners8 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.71 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.71 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest have a visible away split

weak

Nottingham Forest's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9 shots/match11.4 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Newcastle favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 1 · 5 too close

0.86 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 7/70.71 goals/match
0.71 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 7/71.71 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/711.4 shots/match
8.86 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/712.4 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲4 shots/match
3.43 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 7/75.29 shots/match
49.1%Possessionseason · 7/756.1%
6.29 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/74.71 corners/match
4.43 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/75.29 corners/match
1.29 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 7/72 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/711.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
71%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/70%
57%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 7/743%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle47.5
Nottingham Forest72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle33.3
Nottingham Forest35.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle81.7
Nottingham Forest23.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle57.5
Nottingham Forest17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle42.5
Nottingham Forest55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle87.5
Nottingham Forest55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle61.9
Nottingham Forest55.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.2 goals/match
0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲12 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.4 shots/match
49.2%Possession5/556.2%
6.2 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
0.86 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.71 goals/match
0.71 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.71 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShots7/711.4 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲4 shots/match
49.1%Possession7/756.1%
6.29 corners/matchCorners7/74.71 corners/match
1.29 cards/matchCards7/72 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls7/711.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
0.86 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.71 goals/match
0.71 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.71 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShots7/711.4 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲4 shots/match
49.1%Possession7/756.1%
6.29 corners/matchCorners7/74.71 corners/match
1.29 cards/matchCards7/72 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls7/711.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/40.5 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/match▲Shots4/49 shots/match
4.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/43.5 shots/match
45.8%Possession4/454%
7.75 corners/matchCorners4/43 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards4/42.25 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls4/412 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.85 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNewcastleNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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