PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 13:00 UTCFull timeHill Dickinson StadiumFull-time recap

Everton

WWDLD
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricEvertonCrystal Palace
Shots14 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target7 shots/match8 shots/match▲
Possession50%50%
Corners2 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match16 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Everton's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Crystal Palace's recent record differs from the season

weak

Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.29 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.29 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Everton have a visible home split

weak

Everton's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.3 shots/match11.9 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Crystal Palace show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Crystal Palace's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.9 shots/match▲ShotsEverton · Crystal Palace12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricEvertonCrystal PalaceBaseline
Shots11.9 shots/match12.6 shots/match11.6 shots/match
Shots against13.3 shots/match12.7 shots/match11.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Everton favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Crystal Palace in 6 · 7 too close

1.29 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/71.29 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/7▲0.71 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/7▲12.6 shots/match
13.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 7/712.7 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲5.14 shots/match
3.71 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/7▲3.14 shots/match
46%Possessionseason · 7/741.3%
3.57 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/73.29 corners/match
4 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/76.14 corners/match
2.57 cards/matchCardsseason · 7/7▲2.43 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/711.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/7▲43%
71%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/771%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Everton32.5
Crystal Palace12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Everton50
Crystal Palace75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Everton45
Crystal Palace65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Everton77.5
Crystal Palace97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Everton63.8
Crystal Palace68.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Everton12.5
Crystal Palace7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Everton35.6
Crystal Palace57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.8 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.6 shots/match
46.8%Possession5/543.8%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
1.29 goals/matchGoals scored7/71.29 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲0.71 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.9 shots/matchShots7/7▲12.6 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲5.14 shots/match
46%Possession7/741.3%
3.57 corners/matchCorners7/73.29 corners/match
2.57 cards/matchCards7/72.43 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls7/711.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
1.29 goals/matchGoals scored7/71.29 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲0.71 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.9 shots/matchShots7/7▲12.6 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲5.14 shots/match
46%Possession7/741.3%
3.57 corners/matchCorners7/73.29 corners/match
2.57 cards/matchCards7/72.43 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls7/711.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲1.5 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/40.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.3 shots/match▲Shots4/412.5 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲4.75 shots/match
48%Possession4/440.8%
4.25 corners/matchCorners4/43.75 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards4/43 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls4/411.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.75 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.96 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsEvertonCrystal Palace
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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