PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 27 Sept 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeEtihad StadiumFull-time recap
5–1Full-time recap

Burnley

LWLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricManchester CityBurnley
Shots21 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession69%31%
Corners10 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls5 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Manchester City show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Manchester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.7 shots/match▲ShotsManchester City · Burnley8.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricManchester CityBurnleyBaseline
Shots12.7 shots/match8.5 shots/match11.5 shots/match
Shots against11 shots/match19.3 shots/match11.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.8%▲PossessionManchester City · Burnley33.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricManchester CityBurnleyBaseline
Possession54.8%33.3%50.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Burnley's recent record differs from the season

weak

Burnley's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Manchester City favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Burnley in 0 · 4 too close

2.33 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 6/61 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 6/62.17 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 6/68.5 shots/match
11 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 6/619.3 shots/match
4.67 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 6/62.67 shots/match
3.67 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 6/65.5 shots/match
54.8%Possessionseason · 6/633.3%
4.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/62.83 corners/match
4.33 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 6/67.33 corners/match
1.33 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 6/62 cards/match
8.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/69 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/617%
83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 6/667%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester City67.5
Burnley2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester City86.7
Burnley17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester City60.8
Burnley5.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester City47.5
Burnley72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester City7.5
Burnley33.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester City45
Burnley2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester City52.5
Burnley10
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/match▲Shots5/57.4 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match
54.2%Possession5/533.4%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/52.4 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
8.8 fouls/matchFouls5/59.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

6 / 6 matches
2.33 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/62.17 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/match▲Shots6/68.5 shots/match
4.67 shots/match▲Shots on target6/62.67 shots/match
54.8%Possession6/633.3%
4.5 corners/matchCorners6/62.83 corners/match
1.33 cards/matchCards6/62 cards/match
8.5 fouls/matchFouls6/69 fouls/match

Window

Season

6 / 6 matches
2.33 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/62.17 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/match▲Shots6/68.5 shots/match
4.67 shots/match▲Shots on target6/62.67 shots/match
54.8%Possession6/633.3%
4.5 corners/matchCorners6/62.83 corners/match
1.33 cards/matchCards6/62 cards/match
8.5 fouls/matchFouls6/69 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches
2.67 goals/match▲Goals scored3/31 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/33.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.7 shots/match▲Shots3/39.67 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target3/33 shots/match
58.3%Possession3/334%
6.33 corners/matchCorners3/32.67 corners/match
0.67 cards/matchCards3/32.67 cards/match
6.67 fouls/matchFouls3/38 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.94 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Sept 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsManchester CityBurnley
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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