PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

1. FC Heidenheim 2–0 VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga

2–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FC Heidenheim won 2–0.

Shots
1917
Shots on target
32
Expected goals
1.232.82
Possession
31%69%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FC Heidenheim beat VfB Stuttgart 2–0. Recorded in this match (1. FC Heidenheim – VfB Stuttgart): shots 19–17, shots on target 3–2, expected goals 1.23–2.82, possession 31%–69%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FC Heidenheim have a visible home split

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.4 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.4 shots/match12.8 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

VfB Stuttgart's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.7 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match2.7 goals/match1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

VfB Stuttgart show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.8 shots/match ▲Shots1. FC Heidenheim · VfB Stuttgart15.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FC HeidenheimVfB StuttgartBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match15.8 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against15.7 shots/match11.7 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots17 shots1. FC Heidenheim 19 shots, VfB Stuttgart 17 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots2 shots1. FC Heidenheim 3 shots, VfB Stuttgart 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.23 xG2.82 xG1. FC Heidenheim 1.23 xG, VfB Stuttgart 2.82 xG
  • Possession31%69%1. FC Heidenheim 31%, VfB Stuttgart 69%
  • Corners9 corners6 corners1. FC Heidenheim 9 corners, VfB Stuttgart 6 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls13 fouls1. FC Heidenheim 7 fouls, VfB Stuttgart 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Hiroki Itō · VfB Stuttgart · 12′ · 0.01 xG · on targetOmar Haktab Traore · 1. FC Heidenheim · 16′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNorman Theuerkauf · 1. FC Heidenheim · 30′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Mainka · 1. FC Heidenheim · 68′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTim Kleindienst · 1. FC Heidenheim · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Mainka · 1. FC Heidenheim · 33′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTim Kleindienst · 1. FC Heidenheim · 43′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEren Dinkçi · 1. FC Heidenheim · 85′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 86′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSilas · VfB Stuttgart · 67′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJan Schöppner · 1. FC Heidenheim · 70′ · 0.03 xG · goalJan-Niklas Beste · 1. FC Heidenheim · 72′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Mittelstädt · VfB Stuttgart · 79′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTim Kleindienst · 1. FC Heidenheim · 33′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAtakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart · 39′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJan-Niklas Beste · 1. FC Heidenheim · 48′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 41′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEren Dinkçi · 1. FC Heidenheim · 29′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAngelo Stiller · VfB Stuttgart · 38′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAngelo Stiller · VfB Stuttgart · 87′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart · 87′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Mainka · 1. FC Heidenheim · 7′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJan Schöppner · 1. FC Heidenheim · 29′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedBenedikt Gimber · 1. FC Heidenheim · 43′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAdrian Beck · 1. FC Heidenheim · 16′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJan Schöppner · 1. FC Heidenheim · 17′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 39′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedLilian Egloff · VfB Stuttgart · 86′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedLuca Raimund · VfB Stuttgart · 90′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedTim Kleindienst · 1. FC Heidenheim · 33′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedDan-Axel Zagadou · VfB Stuttgart · 87′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedTim Kleindienst · 1. FC Heidenheim · 90′ · 0.27 xG · goalJamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart · 90′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedSilas · VfB Stuttgart · 57′ · 0.82 xG · off target or blockedLuca Raimund · VfB Stuttgart · 90′ · 0.94 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Heidenheim: 19 shots, 3 on target, 1.22 xG. VfB Stuttgart: 17 shots, 1 on target, 3.13 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Jan Schöppner · 1. FC Heidenheim · 70′Tim Kleindienst · 1. FC Heidenheim · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.22 xG · VfB Stuttgart 3.13 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Heidenheim favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · VfB Stuttgart in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Heidenheim10 matchesVfB Stuttgart10 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲ 2.7 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲ 1.3 goals/match
1.36 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲ 2.29 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShots10/10▲ 15.8 shots/match
4.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲ 6.5 shots/match
43.1%Possession10/10● 59.2%
6.5 corners/match ●Corners10/104.5 corners/match
13 fouls/matchFouls10/109.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Nov 2023, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC HeidenheimVfB Stuttgart
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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