PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

VfB Stuttgart 2–1 Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

VfB Stuttgart won 2–1.

Shots
225
Shots on target
101
Expected goals
4.220.96
Possession
59%41%

Full time

What the match recorded

VfB Stuttgart beat Borussia Dortmund 2–1. Recorded in this match (VfB Stuttgart – Borussia Dortmund): shots 22–5, shots on target 10–1, expected goals 4.22–0.96, possession 59%–41%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

VfB Stuttgart's recent record differs from the season

weak

VfB Stuttgart's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.64 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match2.64 goals/match1.57 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Borussia Dortmund have a visible away split

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.8 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.8 shots/match14.2 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots22 shots5 shotsVfB Stuttgart 22 shots, Borussia Dortmund 5 shots
  • Shots on target10 shots1 shotVfB Stuttgart 10 shots, Borussia Dortmund 1 shot
  • Expected goals4.22 xG0.96 xGVfB Stuttgart 4.22 xG, Borussia Dortmund 0.96 xG
  • Possession59%41%VfB Stuttgart 59%, Borussia Dortmund 41%
  • Corners6 corners1 cornerVfB Stuttgart 6 corners, Borussia Dortmund 1 corner
  • Fouls13 fouls16 foulsVfB Stuttgart 13 fouls, Borussia Dortmund 16 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Maximilian Mittelstädt · VfB Stuttgart · 2′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAtakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart · 34′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFelix Nmecha · Borussia Dortmund · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarcel Sabitzer · Borussia Dortmund · 65′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNiklas Süle · Borussia Dortmund · 81′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart · 2′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAtakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart · 11′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedWaldemar Anton · VfB Stuttgart · 79′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart · 31′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJosha Vagnoman · VfB Stuttgart · 78′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart · 23′ · 0.08 xG · on targetChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 45′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMarcel Sabitzer · Borussia Dortmund · 62′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJosha Vagnoman · VfB Stuttgart · 75′ · 0.09 xG · on targetHiroki Itō · VfB Stuttgart · 45′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedSilas · VfB Stuttgart · 87′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 24′ · 0.16 xG · on targetDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 22′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Millot · VfB Stuttgart · 45′ · 0.18 xG · on targetEnzo Millot · VfB Stuttgart · 20′ · 0.19 xG · on targetChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 11′ · 0.20 xG · on targetJamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart · 31′ · 0.25 xG · on targetChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 54′ · 0.36 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 42′ · 0.53 xG · goalChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 11′ · 0.82 xG · on targetSerhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart · 83′ · 0.82 xG · goalNiclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund · 36′ · 0.85 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

VfB Stuttgart: 22 shots, 10 on target, 4.44 xG. Borussia Dortmund: 5 shots, 1 on target, 0.99 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

02.254.50′HT90′Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 42′Serhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart · 83′Niclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund · 36′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfB Stuttgart 4.44 xG · Borussia Dortmund 0.99 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0VfB Stuttgart
1Draws
3Borussia Dortmund
VfB Stuttgart — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga3–3
Borussia Dortmund — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga5–0
VfB Stuttgart — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga0–2
Borussia Dortmund — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: VfB Stuttgart favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · Borussia Dortmund in 0 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

VfB Stuttgart11 matchesBorussia Dortmund11 matches
2.64 goals/match ▲Goals scored11/111.91 goals/match
1.27 goals/match ▲Goals allowed11/111.55 goals/match
2.46 xG/match ▲Expected goals11/111.89 xG/match
16.4 shots/match ▲Shots11/1114.2 shots/match
6.82 shots/match ▲Shots on target11/114.27 shots/match
59.2% ●Possession11/1157.5%
4.64 corners/matchCorners11/114.64 corners/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls11/1111 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 11 Nov 2023, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVfB StuttgartBorussia Dortmund
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headVfB Stuttgart — Borussia Dortmund
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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