PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

VfL Wolfsburg 2–2 SV Werder Bremen · Bundesliga

2–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

VfL Wolfsburg and SV Werder Bremen drew 2–2.

Shots
1413
Shots on target
44
Expected goals
1.571.24
Possession
57%43%

Full time

What the match recorded

VfL Wolfsburg and SV Werder Bremen drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (VfL Wolfsburg – SV Werder Bremen): shots 14–13, shots on target 4–4, expected goals 1.57–1.24, possession 57%–43%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

VfL Wolfsburg have a visible home split

moderate

VfL Wolfsburg's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.2 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.2 shots/match13 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

VfL Wolfsburg's recent record differs from the season

weak

VfL Wolfsburg's last-five shots average is above their season average.

15 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots15 shots/match13 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots13 shotsVfL Wolfsburg 14 shots, SV Werder Bremen 13 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots4 shotsVfL Wolfsburg 4 shots, SV Werder Bremen 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.57 xG1.24 xGVfL Wolfsburg 1.57 xG, SV Werder Bremen 1.24 xG
  • Possession57%43%VfL Wolfsburg 57%, SV Werder Bremen 43%
  • Corners5 corners2 cornersVfL Wolfsburg 5 corners, SV Werder Bremen 2 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls16 foulsVfL Wolfsburg 15 fouls, SV Werder Bremen 16 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Cedric Zesiger · VfL Wolfsburg · 9′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMitchell Weiser · SV Werder Bremen · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Deman · SV Werder Bremen · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMitchell Weiser · SV Werder Bremen · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 9′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJens Stage · SV Werder Bremen · 31′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRafael Borré · SV Werder Bremen · 34′ · 0.03 xG · on targetOlivier Deman · SV Werder Bremen · 43′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCedric Zesiger · VfL Wolfsburg · 47′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Arnold · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedVáclav Černý · VfL Wolfsburg · 20′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 40′ · 0.04 xG · on targetVáclav Černý · VfL Wolfsburg · 47′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMaxence Lacroix · VfL Wolfsburg · 25′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 82′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen · 7′ · 0.09 xG · goalJoakim Mæhle · VfL Wolfsburg · 58′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedRafael Borré · SV Werder Bremen · 65′ · 0.12 xG · goalLeonardo Bittencourt · SV Werder Bremen · 31′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedVáclav Černý · VfL Wolfsburg · 37′ · 0.16 xG · goalRomano Schmid · SV Werder Bremen · 31′ · 0.18 xG · on targetMarvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen · 48′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedVáclav Černý · VfL Wolfsburg · 41′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Deman · SV Werder Bremen · 44′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedJens Stage · SV Werder Bremen · 52′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedKevin Paredes · VfL Wolfsburg · 59′ · 0.66 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

VfL Wolfsburg: 14 shots, 4 on target, 1.54 xG. SV Werder Bremen: 13 shots, 4 on target, 1.28 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Václav Černý · VfL Wolfsburg · 37′Kevin Paredes · VfL Wolfsburg · 59′Marvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen · 7′Rafael Borré · SV Werder Bremen · 65′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfL Wolfsburg 1.54 xG · SV Werder Bremen 1.28 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0VfL Wolfsburg
1Draws
1SV Werder Bremen
SV Werder Bremen — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga2–1
VfL Wolfsburg — SV Werder Bremen · Bundesliga2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: VfL Wolfsburg favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · SV Werder Bremen in 1 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

VfL Wolfsburg10 matchesSV Werder Bremen10 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲ 1.6 goals/match
1.6 goals/match ▲Goals allowed10/102 goals/match
1.49 xG/matchExpected goals10/101.42 xG/match
13 shots/match ▲Shots10/1011.4 shots/match
5.4 shots/match ▲Shots on target10/103.7 shots/match
49.4% ●Possession10/1048%
3.8 corners/match ●Corners10/103.3 corners/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Nov 2023, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVfL WolfsburgSV Werder Bremen
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headVfL Wolfsburg — SV Werder Bremen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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