Bundesliga · 2023Sat, 9 Dec 2023, 14:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

1. FC Heidenheim

LWLDL

3–2Full-time recap

Darmstadt 98

LLDDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	1. FC Heidenheim	Darmstadt 98
Shots	16 shots/match	20 shots/match▲
Shots on target	7 shots/match	7 shots/match
Expected goals	1.51 xG/match▲	0.92 xG/match
Possession	44%	56%●
Corners	8 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	17 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Darmstadt 98's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: 1. FC Heidenheim's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Darmstadt 98's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Darmstadt 98's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.21 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.21 goals/match	1.57 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FC Heidenheim have a visible home split

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	15.3 shots/match	12 shots/match	12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

13.2 fouls/matchFouls1. FC Heidenheim · Darmstadt 9813.7 fouls/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	1. FC Heidenheim	Darmstadt 98	Baseline
Fouls	13.2 fouls/match	13.7 fouls/match	11.5 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

1. FC Heidenheim favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Darmstadt 98 in 1 · 5 too close

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 14/141.21 goals/match

2.14 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 14/142.64 goals/match

1.28 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 14/141.08 xG/match

2.35 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 14/14▲2.07 xG/match

12 shots/matchShotsseason · 14/1412.6 shots/match

16.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 14/1415.6 shots/match

3.86 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 14/143.71 shots/match

6.36 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 14/146.86 shots/match

41.4%Possessionseason · 14/14●47.7%

6 corners/match●Cornersseason · 14/143.43 corners/match

4.64 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 14/145.29 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1413.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

21%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/147%

79%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 14/1471%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1. FC Heidenheim2.8

Darmstadt 9847.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1. FC Heidenheim28.7

Darmstadt 9825.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1. FC Heidenheim13.9

Darmstadt 9813

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1. FC Heidenheim86.1

Darmstadt 9825

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1. FC Heidenheim80.6

Darmstadt 9891.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1. FC Heidenheim75

Darmstadt 982.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1. FC Heidenheim48.6

Darmstadt 9836.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

1. FC Heidenheim14 matchesDarmstadt 9814 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141.21 goals/match

2.14 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/142.64 goals/match

1.28 xG/match▲Expected goals14/141.08 xG/match

12 shots/matchShots14/1412.6 shots/match

3.86 shots/matchShots on target14/143.71 shots/match

41.4%Possession14/14●47.7%

6 corners/match●Corners14/143.43 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.2 fouls/matchFouls14/1413.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

1. FC Heidenheim7 matchesDarmstadt 987 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71 goals/match

1.71 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/73.14 goals/match

1.5 xG/match▲Expected goals7/70.69 xG/match

15.3 shots/match▲Shots7/710.3 shots/match

5.14 shots/match▲Shots on target7/72.86 shots/match

44.4%●Possession7/742.4%

7.71 corners/match●Corners7/72.71 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.3 fouls/matchFouls7/713 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.79 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples14 / 14home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 9 Dec 2023, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4