PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

1. FSV Mainz 05 0–1 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FC Heidenheim won 0–1.

Shots
196
Shots on target
42
Expected goals
1.630.53
Possession
65%35%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FC Heidenheim beat 1. FSV Mainz 05 1–0. Recorded in this match (1. FSV Mainz 05 – 1. FC Heidenheim): shots 19–6, shots on target 4–2, expected goals 1.63–0.53, possession 65%–35%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.8 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.8 goals/match1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FC Heidenheim have a visible away split

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.38 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.38 shots/match11.6 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

14.1 fouls/matchFouls1. FSV Mainz 05 · 1. FC Heidenheim13.7 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric1. FSV Mainz 051. FC HeidenheimBaseline
Fouls14.1 fouls/match13.7 fouls/match11.5 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots6 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 19 shots, 1. FC Heidenheim 6 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots2 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 4 shots, 1. FC Heidenheim 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.63 xG0.53 xG1. FSV Mainz 05 1.63 xG, 1. FC Heidenheim 0.53 xG
  • Possession65%35%1. FSV Mainz 05 65%, 1. FC Heidenheim 35%
  • Corners8 corners1 corner1. FSV Mainz 05 8 corners, 1. FC Heidenheim 1 corner
  • Fouls9 fouls20 fouls1. FSV Mainz 05 9 fouls, 1. FC Heidenheim 20 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Jonas Föhrenbach · 1. FC Heidenheim · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 21′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarco Richter · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 32′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMarco Richter · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 69′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMerveille Papela · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 25′ · 0.03 xG · on targetBrajan Gruda · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 26′ · 0.03 xG · on targetTim Kleindienst · 1. FC Heidenheim · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarco Richter · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 61′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBrajan Gruda · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 16′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarco Richter · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 35′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJan Schöppner · 1. FC Heidenheim · 58′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 51′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Müller · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 78′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Pick · 1. FC Heidenheim · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTim Kleindienst · 1. FC Heidenheim · 90′ · 0.07 xG · on targetLudovic Ajorque · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 48′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 55′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSepp van den Berg · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 18′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 74′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMarco Richter · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 61′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 22′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedKarim Onisiwo · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 71′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMarco Richter · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 67′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Pieringer · 1. FC Heidenheim · 12′ · 0.31 xG · goalLudovic Ajorque · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 74′ · 0.38 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FSV Mainz 05: 19 shots, 3 on target, 1.61 xG. 1. FC Heidenheim: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.51 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Marvin Pieringer · 1. FC Heidenheim · 12′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.61 xG · 1. FC Heidenheim 0.51 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FSV Mainz 05 favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FC Heidenheim in 4 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FSV Mainz 0515 matches1. FC Heidenheim15 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲ 1.47 goals/match
1.8 goals/match ▲Goals allowed15/152 goals/match
1.14 xG/matchExpected goals15/15▲ 1.23 xG/match
13.2 shots/match ▲Shots15/1511.6 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target15/153.73 shots/match
47.5% ●Possession15/1541%
5.07 corners/matchCorners15/15● 5.67 corners/match
14.1 fouls/matchFouls15/1513.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 16 Dec 2023, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FSV Mainz 051. FC Heidenheim
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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