PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

Borussia Dortmund 1–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Borussia Dortmund and 1. FSV Mainz 05 drew 1–1.

Shots
2211
Shots on target
76
Expected goals
1.210.95
Possession
66%34%

Full time

What the match recorded

Borussia Dortmund and 1. FSV Mainz 05 drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Borussia Dortmund – 1. FSV Mainz 05): shots 22–11, shots on target 7–6, expected goals 1.21–0.95, possession 66%–34%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.81 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.81 goals/match1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Borussia Dortmund, 1. FSV Mainz 05.

3.21 days ▲Rest daysBorussia Dortmund · 1. FSV Mainz 053.21 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBorussia Dortmund1. FSV Mainz 05Baseline
Rest days3.21 days3.21 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Borussia Dortmund have a visible home split

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season15.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots18.3 shots/match15.6 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots22 shots11 shotsBorussia Dortmund 22 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 11 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots6 shotsBorussia Dortmund 7 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.21 xG0.95 xGBorussia Dortmund 1.21 xG, 1. FSV Mainz 05 0.95 xG
  • Possession66%34%Borussia Dortmund 66%, 1. FSV Mainz 05 34%
  • Corners6 corners1 cornerBorussia Dortmund 6 corners, 1. FSV Mainz 05 1 corner
  • Fouls11 fouls14 foulsBorussia Dortmund 11 fouls, 1. FSV Mainz 05 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Julian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 24′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMarco Richter · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 48′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEmre Can · Borussia Dortmund · 79′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDonyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund · 7′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarcel Sabitzer · Borussia Dortmund · 8′ · 0.02 xG · on targetThomas Meunier · Borussia Dortmund · 77′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarcel Sabitzer · Borussia Dortmund · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarcel Sabitzer · Borussia Dortmund · 31′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarco Richter · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 42′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMerveille Papela · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 84′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDonyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJamie Gittens · Borussia Dortmund · 8′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKarim Onisiwo · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 50′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNiklas Süle · Borussia Dortmund · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJamie Gittens · Borussia Dortmund · 17′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPhillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 49′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRamy Bensebaini · Borussia Dortmund · 5′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJamie Gittens · Borussia Dortmund · 18′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 29′ · 0.06 xG · goalMarcel Sabitzer · Borussia Dortmund · 44′ · 0.06 xG · on targetPhillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 48′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMarco Richter · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 68′ · 0.06 xG · on targetNico Schlotterbeck · Borussia Dortmund · 71′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNiclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund · 33′ · 0.07 xG · on targetThomas Meunier · Borussia Dortmund · 5′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJamie Gittens · Borussia Dortmund · 60′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 82′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDonyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund · 11′ · 0.10 xG · on targetMats Hummels · Borussia Dortmund · 45′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedSepp van den Berg · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 43′ · 0.13 xG · goalBrajan Gruda · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 20′ · 0.17 xG · on targetDonyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund · 56′ · 0.19 xG · on targetJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 88′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Borussia Dortmund: 22 shots, 7 on target, 1.22 xG. 1. FSV Mainz 05: 11 shots, 6 on target, 0.95 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Julian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 29′Sepp van den Berg · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 43′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Borussia Dortmund 1.22 xG · 1. FSV Mainz 05 0.95 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Borussia Dortmund
1Draws
01. FSV Mainz 05
Borussia Dortmund — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga2–2
1. FSV Mainz 05 — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga1–2
1. FSV Mainz 05 — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga0–1
Borussia Dortmund — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Borussia Dortmund favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FSV Mainz 05 in 4 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Borussia Dortmund16 matches1. FSV Mainz 0516 matches
1.88 goals/match ▲Goals scored16/160.81 goals/match
1.56 goals/match ▲Goals allowed16/161.75 goals/match
1.89 xG/match ▲Expected goals16/161.13 xG/match
15.6 shots/match ▲Shots16/1613.1 shots/match
5.13 shots/match ▲Shots on target16/163.94 shots/match
56.2% ●Possession16/1646.7%
4.75 corners/matchCorners16/16● 4.81 corners/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls16/1614.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 19 Dec 2023, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBorussia Dortmund1. FSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headBorussia Dortmund — 1. FSV Mainz 05
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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