PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

1. FC Heidenheim 3–2 FC Bayern München · Bundesliga

3–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FC Heidenheim won 3–2.

Shots
915
Shots on target
47
Expected goals
1.441.89
Possession
33%67%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FC Heidenheim beat FC Bayern München 3–2. Recorded in this match (1. FC Heidenheim – FC Bayern München): shots 9–15, shots on target 4–7, expected goals 1.44–1.89, possession 33%–67%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.4 shots/match ▲Shots1. FC Heidenheim · FC Bayern München19.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FC HeidenheimFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Shots11.4 shots/match19.9 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against15.3 shots/match9.71 shots/match14.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

1. FC Heidenheim have a visible home split

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.9 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.9 shots/match11.4 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

FC Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

41.4%Possession1. FC Heidenheim · FC Bayern München● 62.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.0 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric1. FC HeidenheimFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Possession41.4%62.3%47.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots15 shots1. FC Heidenheim 9 shots, FC Bayern München 15 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots7 shots1. FC Heidenheim 4 shots, FC Bayern München 7 shots
  • Expected goals1.44 xG1.89 xG1. FC Heidenheim 1.44 xG, FC Bayern München 1.89 xG
  • Possession33%67%1. FC Heidenheim 33%, FC Bayern München 67%
  • Corners3 corners3 corners1. FC Heidenheim 3 corners, FC Bayern München 3 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls8 fouls1. FC Heidenheim 9 fouls, FC Bayern München 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Serge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 24′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJonas Föhrenbach · 1. FC Heidenheim · 12′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEren Dinkçi · 1. FC Heidenheim · 63′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 69′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMathys Tel · FC Bayern München · 82′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKim Min-jae · FC Bayern München · 15′ · 0.04 xG · on targetDayot Upamecano · FC Bayern München · 49′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKevin Sessa · 1. FC Heidenheim · 73′ · 0.04 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 73′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 5′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJan-Niklas Beste · 1. FC Heidenheim · 75′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Mainka · 1. FC Heidenheim · 48′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 49′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedThomas Müller · FC Bayern München · 27′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedBenedikt Gimber · 1. FC Heidenheim · 71′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedBryan Zaragoza · FC Bayern München · 87′ · 0.11 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 56′ · 0.20 xG · on targetTim Kleindienst · 1. FC Heidenheim · 79′ · 0.27 xG · goalTim Kleindienst · 1. FC Heidenheim · 51′ · 0.32 xG · goalHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 38′ · 0.34 xG · goalMathys Tel · FC Bayern München · 68′ · 0.38 xG · on targetSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 45′ · 0.44 xG · goalKevin Sessa · 1. FC Heidenheim · 50′ · 0.54 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Heidenheim: 9 shots, 4 on target, 1.43 xG. FC Bayern München: 15 shots, 7 on target, 1.91 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Kevin Sessa · 1. FC Heidenheim · 50′Tim Kleindienst · 1. FC Heidenheim · 51′Tim Kleindienst · 1. FC Heidenheim · 79′Harry Kane · FC Bayern München · 38′Serge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.43 xG · FC Bayern München 1.91 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

01. FC Heidenheim
0Draws
1FC Bayern München
FC Bayern München — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga4–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Heidenheim favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Heidenheim28 matchesFC Bayern München28 matches
1.46 goals/matchGoals scored28/28▲ 2.86 goals/match
1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed28/28▲ 1.29 goals/match
1.2 xG/matchExpected goals28/28▲ 2.73 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShots28/28▲ 19.9 shots/match
3.25 shots/matchShots on target28/28▲ 7.43 shots/match
41.4%Possession28/28● 62.3%
5.57 corners/matchCorners28/28● 7.36 corners/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls28/289.36 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 6 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC HeidenheimFC Bayern München
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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