PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2023

Arsenal 2–2 FC Bayern München · UEFA Champions League

Arsenal

WWDLW
2–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Arsenal and FC Bayern München drew 2–2.

Shots
138
Shots on target
42
Expected goals
11.92
Possession
59%41%

Full time

What the match recorded

Arsenal and FC Bayern München drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Arsenal – FC Bayern München): shots 13–8, shots on target 4–2, expected goals 1–1.92, possession 59%–41%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC Bayern München's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Bayern München's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.89 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.89 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Arsenal show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Arsenal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.6 shots/match ▲ShotsArsenal · FC Bayern München14.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricArsenalFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Shots12.6 shots/match14.7 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against9.22 shots/match9.78 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots8 shotsArsenal 13 shots, FC Bayern München 8 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots2 shotsArsenal 4 shots, FC Bayern München 2 shots
  • Expected goals1 xG1.92 xGArsenal 1 xG, FC Bayern München 1.92 xG
  • Possession59%41%Arsenal 59%, FC Bayern München 41%
  • Corners2 corners1 cornerArsenal 2 corners, FC Bayern München 1 corner
  • Fouls13 fouls12 foulsArsenal 13 fouls, FC Bayern München 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Bukayo Saka · Arsenal · 12′ · 0.02 xG · goalGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 37′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 62′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJakub Kiwior · Arsenal · 22′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 35′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKingsley Coman · FC Bayern München · 81′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 7′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 20′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 20′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKonrad Laimer · FC Bayern München · 61′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 68′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBen White · Arsenal · 57′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 65′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 57′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 68′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJakub Kiwior · Arsenal · 27′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 76′ · 0.21 xG · goalBen White · Arsenal · 16′ · 0.24 xG · on targetSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 18′ · 0.41 xG · goalKingsley Coman · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.52 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 32′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Arsenal: 13 shots, 4 on target, 1.00 xG. FC Bayern München: 8 shots, 2 on target, 1.97 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Bukayo Saka · Arsenal · 12′Leandro Trossard · Arsenal · 76′Serge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 18′Harry Kane · FC Bayern München · 32′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 1.00 xG · FC Bayern München 1.97 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Arsenal favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 2 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Arsenal9 matchesFC Bayern München9 matches
2.11 goals/match ▲Goals scored9/91.89 goals/match
0.78 goals/match ▲Goals allowed9/91 goal/match
1.46 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲ 1.8 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShots9/9▲ 14.7 shots/match
4.44 shots/matchShots on target9/94.33 shots/match
57.8% ●Possession9/956.8%
5 corners/matchCorners9/9● 5.11 corners/match
13 fouls/matchFouls9/910.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 9 Apr 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsArsenalFC Bayern München
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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