PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sat, 6 Apr 2024, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
0–3Full-time recap

Arsenal

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBrighton & Hove AlbionArsenal
Shots10 shots/match20 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.53 xG/match3.39 xG/match▲
Possession55%●45%
Corners8 corners/match●7 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Jakub Moder · Brighton & Hove Albion · 10′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 20′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJulio Enciso · Brighton & Hove Albion · 44′ · 0.02 xG · on targetPervis Estupiñán · Brighton & Hove Albion · 51′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 71′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJulio Enciso · Brighton & Hove Albion · 46′ · 0.03 xG · on targetGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 47′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 54′ · 0.04 xG · on targetDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 88′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJulio Enciso · Brighton & Hove Albion · 9′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJan Paul van Hecke · Brighton & Hove Albion · 44′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 48′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSimon Adingra · Brighton & Hove Albion · 16′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSimon Adingra · Brighton & Hove Albion · 35′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJulio Enciso · Brighton & Hove Albion · 57′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 13′ · 0.10 xG · on targetGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 71′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 55′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.11 xG · on targetEddie Nketiah · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 21′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedJoão Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 90′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 12′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 15′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedKai Havertz · Arsenal · 45′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 2′ · 0.32 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 86′ · 0.34 xG · goalKai Havertz · Arsenal · 62′ · 0.44 xG · goalBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 33′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Brighton & Hove Albion: 10 shots, 2 on target, 0.53 xG. Arsenal: 20 shots, 7 on target, 3.40 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Bukayo Saka · Arsenal · 33′Kai Havertz · Arsenal · 62′Leandro Trossard · Arsenal · 86′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Brighton & Hove Albion 0.53 xG · Arsenal 3.40 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brighton & Hove Albion's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Brighton & Hove Albion, Arsenal. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Brighton & Hove Albion's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brighton & Hove Albion's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.65 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.65 goals/match1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Brighton & Hove Albion, Arsenal.

2.92 days▲Rest daysBrighton & Hove Albion · Arsenal2.92 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBrighton & Hove AlbionArsenalBaseline
Rest days2.92 days2.92 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Brighton & Hove Albion show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Brighton & Hove Albion's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.9 shots/match▲ShotsBrighton & Hove Albion · Arsenal16.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBrighton & Hove AlbionArsenalBaseline
Shots14.9 shots/match16.7 shots/match13.8 shots/match
Shots against12.4 shots/match8.35 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Brighton & Hove Albion
1Draws
2Arsenal
Arsenal — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League2–0
Arsenal — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League0–3
Brighton & Hove Albion — Arsenal · Premier League2–4
Arsenal — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League1–2
Brighton & Hove Albion — Arsenal · Premier League0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Brighton & Hove Albion favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Arsenal in 10 · 3 too close

1.65 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 31/31▲2.42 goals/match
1.58 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 31/31▲0.77 goals/match
1.57 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 31/31▲2.01 xG/match
1.49 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 31/31▲0.7 xG/match
14.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 31/31▲16.7 shots/match
12.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 31/31▲8.35 shots/match
5.77 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 31/315.9 shots/match
4.45 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 31/31▲2.35 shots/match
62%●Possessionseason · 31/3160.1%
5.58 corners/matchCornersseason · 31/31●7.35 corners/match
4.16 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 31/31▲2.9 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 31/3110.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
16%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 31/31▲45%
77%Scoring frequencyseason · 31/31▲87%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brighton & Hove Albion92.5
Arsenal77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brighton & Hove Albion74.2
Arsenal90.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brighton & Hove Albion65.8
Arsenal95.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brighton & Hove Albion7.5
Arsenal57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brighton & Hove Albion32.5
Arsenal12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brighton & Hove Albion57.5
Arsenal92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brighton & Hove Albion62.5
Arsenal70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Brighton & Hove Albion31 matchesArsenal31 matches
1.65 goals/matchGoals scored31/31▲2.42 goals/match
1.58 goals/matchGoals allowed31/31▲0.77 goals/match
1.57 xG/matchExpected goals31/31▲2.01 xG/match
14.9 shots/matchShots31/31▲16.7 shots/match
5.77 shots/matchShots on target31/315.9 shots/match
62%●Possession31/3160.1%
5.58 corners/matchCorners31/31●7.35 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.8 fouls/matchFouls31/3110.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Brighton & Hove Albion15 matchesArsenal16 matches
1.87 goals/matchGoals scored15/16▲2.31 goals/match
1.27 goals/matchGoals allowed15/16▲0.69 goals/match
1.78 xG/matchExpected goals15/161.83 xG/match
16.8 shots/match▲Shots15/1615.8 shots/match
6.47 shots/match▲Shots on target15/165.19 shots/match
63.3%●Possession15/1660.2%
7.47 corners/match●Corners15/166.94 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.5 fouls/matchFouls15/1610.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.92 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.92 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples31 / 31home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 6 Apr 2024, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBrighton & Hove AlbionArsenal
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath