PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Wed, 3 Apr 2024, 18:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBrentfordBrighton & Hove Albion
Shots5 shots/match24 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.57 xG/match1.14 xG/match▲
Possession33%67%●
Corners1 corners/match5 corners/match●
Fouls9 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Carlos Baleba · Brighton & Hove Albion · 45′ · 0.01 xG · on targetPascal Groß · Brighton & Hove Albion · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFacundo Buonanotte · Brighton & Hove Albion · 40′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAdam Lallana · Brighton & Hove Albion · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedZanka · Brentford · 44′ · 0.02 xG · on targetBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 74′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJulio Enciso · Brighton & Hove Albion · 81′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJakub Moder · Brighton & Hove Albion · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIgor Júlio · Brighton & Hove Albion · 39′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJulio Enciso · Brighton & Hove Albion · 72′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIgor Júlio · Brighton & Hove Albion · 79′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoão Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 86′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDanny Welbeck · Brighton & Hove Albion · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJan Paul van Hecke · Brighton & Hove Albion · 36′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJoão Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 49′ · 0.04 xG · on targetSimon Adingra · Brighton & Hove Albion · 63′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIvan Toney · Brentford · 68′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJoão Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 23′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJoão Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 33′ · 0.05 xG · on targetFacundo Buonanotte · Brighton & Hove Albion · 34′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAdam Lallana · Brighton & Hove Albion · 57′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedCarlos Baleba · Brighton & Hove Albion · 75′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTariq Lamptey · Brighton & Hove Albion · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJoão Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJoël Veltman · Brighton & Hove Albion · 47′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDanny Welbeck · Brighton & Hove Albion · 90′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedDanny Welbeck · Brighton & Hove Albion · 86′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedYoane Wissa · Brentford · 10′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedIvan Toney · Brentford · 32′ · 0.32 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Brentford: 5 shots, 2 on target, 0.57 xG. Brighton & Hove Albion: 24 shots, 6 on target, 1.13 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Brentford 0.57 xG · Brighton & Hove Albion 1.13 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brighton & Hove Albion's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Brentford, Brighton & Hove Albion. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Brighton & Hove Albion's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brighton & Hove Albion's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.7 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.7 goals/match1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Brentford, Brighton & Hove Albion.

3.94 days▲Rest daysBrentford · Brighton & Hove Albion3.23 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBrentfordBrighton & Hove AlbionBaseline
Rest days3.94 days3.23 days—
Matches last 14 days1 matches1 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Brighton & Hove Albion have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.1%PossessionBrentford · Brighton & Hove Albion●62.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 18.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBrentfordBrighton & Hove AlbionBaseline
Possession44.1%62.2%49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Brentford
1Draws
3Brighton & Hove Albion
Brighton & Hove Albion — Brentford · Premier League2–1
Brighton & Hove Albion — Brentford · Premier League3–3
Brentford — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League2–0
Brighton & Hove Albion — Brentford · Premier League2–0
Brentford — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Brentford favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Brighton & Hove Albion in 8 · 5 too close

1.35 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 31/30▲1.7 goals/match
1.77 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 31/30▲1.53 goals/match
1.63 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 31/301.6 xG/match
1.53 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 31/30▲1.43 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 31/30▲15.1 shots/match
15 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 31/30▲12.1 shots/match
4.45 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 31/30▲5.9 shots/match
5.29 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 31/30▲4.37 shots/match
44.1%Possessionseason · 31/30●62.2%
4.68 corners/matchCornersseason · 31/30●5.5 corners/match
5.87 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 31/30▲4.07 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 31/3010.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
16%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 31/3017%
81%Scoring frequencyseason · 31/3080%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brentford32.5
Brighton & Hove Albion92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brentford34.2
Brighton & Hove Albion75.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brentford25
Brighton & Hove Albion71.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brentford77.5
Brighton & Hove Albion12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brentford22.5
Brighton & Hove Albion32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brentford27.5
Brighton & Hove Albion57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brentford31.2
Brighton & Hove Albion63.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Brentford31 matchesBrighton & Hove Albion30 matches
1.35 goals/matchGoals scored31/30▲1.7 goals/match
1.77 goals/matchGoals allowed31/30▲1.53 goals/match
1.63 xG/matchExpected goals31/301.6 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShots31/30▲15.1 shots/match
4.45 shots/matchShots on target31/30▲5.9 shots/match
44.1%Possession31/30●62.2%
4.68 corners/matchCorners31/30●5.5 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.1 fouls/matchFouls31/3010.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Brentford16 matchesBrighton & Hove Albion16 matches
1.56 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.44 goals/match
1.88 goals/matchGoals allowed16/161.88 goals/match
1.81 xG/match▲Expected goals16/161.37 xG/match
14.6 shots/match▲Shots16/1613.1 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲5.13 shots/match
46.3%Possession16/16●60.8%
4.94 corners/match●Corners16/163.81 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.19 fouls/matchFouls16/1610.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.94 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.23 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples31 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 3 Apr 2024, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBrentfordBrighton & Hove Albion
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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