Premier League · 2023Sat, 6 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Aston Villa

WLDWL

3–3Full-time recap

Brentford

DLLDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Aston Villa	Brentford
Shots	11 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.52 xG/match	1.56 xG/match▲
Possession	70%●	30%
Corners	11 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	15 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Aston Villa: 11 shots, 3 on target, 1.52 xG. Brentford: 8 shots, 3 on target, 1.51 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Aston Villa 1.52 xG · Brentford 1.51 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Aston Villa, Brentford. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.06 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	2.06 goals/match	1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Aston Villa, Brentford.

2.78 days▲Rest daysAston Villa · Brentford2.81 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Aston Villa	Brentford	Baseline
Rest days	2.78 days	2.81 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Brentford have a visible away split

moderate

Brentford's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.7 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	10.7 shots/match	12.7 shots/match	13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Aston Villa

2Draws

1Brentford

17 Dec 2023Brentford — Aston Villa · Premier League1–2

22 Apr 2023Brentford — Aston Villa · Premier League1–1

23 Oct 2022Aston Villa — Brentford · Premier League4–0

2 Jan 2022Brentford — Aston Villa · Premier League2–1

28 Aug 2021Aston Villa — Brentford · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Brentford in 0 · 3 too close

2.06 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 32/321.41 goals/match

1.53 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 32/321.81 goals/match

1.75 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 32/321.62 xG/match

1.53 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 32/321.53 xG/match

14.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 32/3212.7 shots/match

11.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 32/3214.9 shots/match

5.38 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 32/324.41 shots/match

4.44 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 32/325.22 shots/match

54.9%●Possessionseason · 32/3243.7%

6.34 corners/match●Cornersseason · 32/324.63 corners/match

4.25 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 32/326.03 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 32/3210.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

22%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 32/3216%

88%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 32/3281%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa67.5

Brentford32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa67.5

Brentford35

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa72.5

Brentford27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa27.5

Brentford77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa47.5

Brentford22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa82.5

Brentford27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa65

Brentford31.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Aston Villa32 matchesBrentford32 matches

2.06 goals/match▲Goals scored32/321.41 goals/match

1.53 goals/match▲Goals allowed32/321.81 goals/match

1.75 xG/match▲Expected goals32/321.62 xG/match

14.1 shots/match▲Shots32/3212.7 shots/match

5.38 shots/match▲Shots on target32/324.41 shots/match

54.9%●Possession32/3243.7%

6.34 corners/match●Corners32/324.63 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFouls32/3210.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Aston Villa16 matchesBrentford16 matches

2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.25 goals/match

1.38 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.75 goals/match

2.06 xG/match▲Expected goals16/161.43 xG/match

14.9 shots/match▲Shots16/1610.7 shots/match

5.75 shots/match▲Shots on target16/164.31 shots/match

56.1%●Possession16/1641%

6.19 corners/match●Corners16/164.31 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.2 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.78 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.81 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples32 / 32home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 6 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4