PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Aston Villa 3–3 Brentford · Premier League

3–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Aston Villa and Brentford drew 3–3.

Shots
118
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
1.521.56
Possession
70%30%

Full time

What the match recorded

Aston Villa and Brentford drew 3–3. Recorded in this match (Aston Villa – Brentford): shots 11–8, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 1.52–1.56, possession 70%–30%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.06 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match2.06 goals/match1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Aston Villa, Brentford.

2.78 days ▲Rest daysAston Villa · Brentford2.81 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAston VillaBrentfordBaseline
Rest days2.78 days2.81 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Brentford have a visible away split

moderate

Brentford's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.7 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.7 shots/match12.7 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots8 shotsAston Villa 11 shots, Brentford 8 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shotsAston Villa 3 shots, Brentford 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.52 xG1.56 xGAston Villa 1.52 xG, Brentford 1.56 xG
  • Possession70%30%Aston Villa 70%, Brentford 30%
  • Corners11 corners3 cornersAston Villa 11 corners, Brentford 3 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls11 foulsAston Villa 15 fouls, Brentford 11 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Sergio Reguilón · Brentford · 67′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLucas Digne · Aston Villa · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeon Bailey · Aston Villa · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 6′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMikkel Damsgaard · Brentford · 65′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLeon Bailey · Aston Villa · 56′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSergio Reguilón · Brentford · 1′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 38′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedEzri Konsa · Aston Villa · 83′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLucas Digne · Aston Villa · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMikkel Damsgaard · Brentford · 59′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 46′ · 0.15 xG · goalBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 61′ · 0.16 xG · goalEzri Konsa · Aston Villa · 90′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 39′ · 0.24 xG · goalOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 80′ · 0.24 xG · goalMorgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 45′ · 0.40 xG · off target or blockedZanka · Brentford · 59′ · 0.44 xG · goalYoane Wissa · Brentford · 68′ · 0.66 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Aston Villa: 11 shots, 3 on target, 1.52 xG. Brentford: 8 shots, 3 on target, 1.51 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa · 39′Morgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 46′Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa · 80′Zanka · Brentford · 59′Bryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 61′Yoane Wissa · Brentford · 68′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Aston Villa 1.52 xG · Brentford 1.51 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Aston Villa
2Draws
1Brentford
Brentford — Aston Villa · Premier League1–2
Brentford — Aston Villa · Premier League1–1
Aston Villa — Brentford · Premier League4–0
Brentford — Aston Villa · Premier League2–1
Aston Villa — Brentford · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Aston Villa favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Brentford in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Aston Villa32 matchesBrentford32 matches
2.06 goals/match ▲Goals scored32/321.41 goals/match
1.53 goals/match ▲Goals allowed32/321.81 goals/match
1.75 xG/match ▲Expected goals32/321.62 xG/match
14.1 shots/match ▲Shots32/3212.7 shots/match
5.38 shots/match ▲Shots on target32/324.41 shots/match
54.9% ●Possession32/3243.7%
6.34 corners/match ●Corners32/324.63 corners/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls32/3210.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples32 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 6 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAston VillaBrentford
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headAston Villa — Brentford
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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