Premier League · 2023Sat, 6 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Luton Town

DLDLL

2–1Full-time recap

Bournemouth

WDWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Luton Town	Bournemouth
Shots	19 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	9 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	1.46 xG/match▲	0.41 xG/match
Possession	56%●	44%
Corners	7 corners/match●	2 corners/match
Fouls	7 fouls/match	14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Luton Town: 19 shots, 9 on target, 1.41 xG. Bournemouth: 8 shots, 1 on target, 0.40 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Luton Town 1.41 xG · Bournemouth 0.40 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Luton Town, Bournemouth. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Bournemouth's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.45 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	1.45 goals/match	1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Luton Town, Bournemouth.

2.81 days▲Rest daysLuton Town · Bournemouth3.8 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Luton Town	Bournemouth	Baseline
Rest days	2.81 days	3.8 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Luton Town have a visible home split

moderate

Luton Town's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.1 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	14.1 shots/match	11.8 shots/match	13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Luton Town

0Draws

2Bournemouth

13 Mar 2024Bournemouth — Luton Town · Premier League4–3

15 Jan 2022Luton Town — Bournemouth · Championship3–2

25 Sept 2021Bournemouth — Luton Town · Championship2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Luton Town favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Bournemouth in 8 · 5 too close

1.41 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 32/311.45 goals/match

2.03 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 32/31▲1.77 goals/match

1.2 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 32/31▲1.48 xG/match

2.04 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 32/31▲1.55 xG/match

11.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 32/31▲13.9 shots/match

16.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 32/31▲13.9 shots/match

3.69 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 32/31▲4.87 shots/match

5.84 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 32/31▲5.35 shots/match

42.1%Possessionseason · 32/31●44.8%

5.53 corners/matchCornersseason · 32/31●6.29 corners/match

5.72 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 32/315.61 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 32/3113.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

6%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 32/31▲23%

84%Scoring frequencyseason · 32/3181%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Luton Town27.5

Bournemouth37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Luton Town23.3

Bournemouth50.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Luton Town14.2

Bournemouth31.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Luton Town62.5

Bournemouth87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Luton Town62.5

Bournemouth97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Luton Town52.5

Bournemouth77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Luton Town38.8

Bournemouth70

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Luton Town32 matchesBournemouth31 matches

1.41 goals/matchGoals scored32/311.45 goals/match

2.03 goals/matchGoals allowed32/31▲1.77 goals/match

1.2 xG/matchExpected goals32/31▲1.48 xG/match

11.8 shots/matchShots32/31▲13.9 shots/match

3.69 shots/matchShots on target32/31▲4.87 shots/match

42.1%Possession32/31●44.8%

5.53 corners/matchCorners32/31●6.29 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.4 fouls/matchFouls32/3113.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Luton Town16 matchesBournemouth15 matches

1.5 goals/matchGoals scored16/15▲1.6 goals/match

1.69 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/152.07 goals/match

1.44 xG/matchExpected goals16/151.5 xG/match

14.1 shots/matchShots16/1513.5 shots/match

4.38 shots/matchShots on target16/154.53 shots/match

45.9%●Possession16/1543.3%

6.88 corners/match●Corners16/155.27 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.2 fouls/matchFouls16/1513.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.81 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.8 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples32 / 31home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 6 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4