Premier League · 2023Tue, 2 Apr 2024, 18:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Bournemouth

LWDWW

1–0Full-time recap

Crystal Palace

DWLDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Bournemouth	Crystal Palace
Shots	11 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1.1 xG/match▲	0.19 xG/match
Possession	50%	50%
Corners	9 corners/match●	2 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Bournemouth: 11 shots, 6 on target, 1.08 xG. Crystal Palace: 3 shots, 2 on target, 0.18 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bournemouth 1.08 xG · Crystal Palace 0.18 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bournemouth, Crystal Palace. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Bournemouth's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.47 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.2 goals/match	1.47 goals/match	1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bournemouth, Crystal Palace.

3.16 days▲Rest daysBournemouth · Crystal Palace3.16 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Bournemouth	Crystal Palace	Baseline
Rest days	3.16 days	3.16 days	—
Matches last 14 days	1 matches	1 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

13.3 fouls/matchFoulsBournemouth · Crystal Palace12.2 fouls/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Bournemouth	Crystal Palace	Baseline
Fouls	13.3 fouls/match	12.2 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Bournemouth

0Draws

2Crystal Palace

6 Dec 2023Crystal Palace — Bournemouth · Premier League0–2

13 May 2023Crystal Palace — Bournemouth · Premier League2–0

31 Dec 2022Bournemouth — Crystal Palace · Premier League0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Bournemouth favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Crystal Palace in 5 · 3 too close

1.47 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 30/301.13 goals/match

1.77 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 30/30▲1.67 goals/match

1.52 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 30/301.16 xG/match

1.55 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 30/30▲1.41 xG/match

14.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 30/3011.4 shots/match

13.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 30/30▲12.4 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 30/304 shots/match

5.23 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 30/30▲4.2 shots/match

44.8%●Possessionseason · 30/3041.8%

6.43 corners/match●Cornersseason · 30/304.8 corners/match

5.57 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 30/30▲5.2 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/3012.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

23%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/3020%

80%Scoring frequencyseason · 30/3077%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bournemouth37.5

Crystal Palace27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bournemouth55.8

Crystal Palace19.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bournemouth39.2

Crystal Palace67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bournemouth87.5

Crystal Palace52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth97.5

Crystal Palace77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth82.5

Crystal Palace35

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bournemouth75

Crystal Palace38.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Bournemouth30 matchesCrystal Palace30 matches

1.47 goals/match▲Goals scored30/301.13 goals/match

1.77 goals/matchGoals allowed30/30▲1.67 goals/match

1.52 xG/match▲Expected goals30/301.16 xG/match

14.1 shots/match▲Shots30/3011.4 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target30/304 shots/match

44.8%●Possession30/3041.8%

6.43 corners/match●Corners30/304.8 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.3 fouls/matchFouls30/3012.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Bournemouth16 matchesCrystal Palace16 matches

1.31 goals/match▲Goals scored16/160.94 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.88 goals/match

1.47 xG/match▲Expected goals16/160.99 xG/match

14.2 shots/match▲Shots16/1610.2 shots/match

5.19 shots/match▲Shots on target16/163.81 shots/match

46.1%●Possession16/1639.1%

7.25 corners/match●Corners16/163.88 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.1 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.16 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.16 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples30 / 30home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Tue, 2 Apr 2024, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4