Premier League · 2023Sat, 30 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Bournemouth

DLWDW

2–1Full-time recap

Everton

LDDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Bournemouth	Everton
Shots	11 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.32 xG/match▲	1.01 xG/match
Possession	49%	51%●
Corners	9 corners/match●	8 corners/match
Fouls	14 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Bournemouth's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.48 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	1.48 goals/match	1.51 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Bournemouth

0Draws

2Everton

7 Oct 2023Everton — Bournemouth · Premier League3–0

28 May 2023Everton — Bournemouth · Premier League1–0

12 Nov 2022Bournemouth — Everton · Premier League3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Bournemouth favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Everton in 4 · 5 too close

1.48 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 29/291.03 goals/match

1.83 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 29/29▲1.41 goals/match

1.53 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 29/291.52 xG/match

1.6 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 29/29▲1.44 xG/match

14.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 29/2913.9 shots/match

14.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 29/2913.9 shots/match

4.97 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 29/294.55 shots/match

5.34 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 29/29▲4.45 shots/match

44.6%●Possessionseason · 29/2940.3%

6.34 corners/match●Cornersseason · 29/294.83 corners/match

5.69 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 29/296.24 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/2912.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

21%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/29▲28%

79%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 29/2962%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bournemouth37.5

Everton7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bournemouth55.8

Everton37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bournemouth29.2

Everton62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bournemouth87.5

Everton97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth97.5

Everton72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth82.5

Everton32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bournemouth75

Everton51.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Bournemouth29 matchesEverton29 matches

1.48 goals/match▲Goals scored29/291.03 goals/match

1.83 goals/matchGoals allowed29/29▲1.41 goals/match

1.53 xG/matchExpected goals29/291.52 xG/match

14.2 shots/matchShots29/2913.9 shots/match

4.97 shots/match▲Shots on target29/294.55 shots/match

44.6%●Possession29/2940.3%

6.34 corners/match●Corners29/294.83 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.3 fouls/matchFouls29/2912.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Bournemouth15 matchesEverton15 matches

1.33 goals/match▲Goals scored15/151 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed15/151.53 goals/match

1.49 xG/match▲Expected goals15/151.16 xG/match

14.4 shots/match▲Shots15/1511.9 shots/match

5.13 shots/match▲Shots on target15/153.8 shots/match

45.9%●Possession15/1538.9%

7.13 corners/match●Corners15/154.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.1 fouls/matchFouls15/1512.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

16.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/121.1 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples29 / 29home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4