Premier League · 2023Sat, 6 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Fulham

WLWDL

0–1Full-time recap

Newcastle United

LWLWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Fulham	Newcastle United
Shots	14 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.26 xG/match▲	0.97 xG/match
Possession	67%●	33%
Corners	14 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Fulham: 14 shots, 4 on target, 1.23 xG. Newcastle United: 12 shots, 5 on target, 0.98 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Fulham 1.23 xG · Newcastle United 0.98 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fulham's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Fulham, Newcastle United. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Fulham's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fulham's last-five shots average is above their season average.

19 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	19 shots/match	13.4 shots/match	13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Fulham, Newcastle United.

3.81 days▲Rest daysFulham · Newcastle United3.81 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Fulham	Newcastle United	Baseline
Rest days	3.81 days	3.81 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Newcastle United have a visible away split

moderate

Newcastle United's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	10.5 shots/match	13.9 shots/match	13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Fulham

0Draws

3Newcastle United

16 Dec 2023Newcastle United — Fulham · Premier League3–0

15 Jan 2023Newcastle United — Fulham · Premier League1–0

1 Oct 2022Fulham — Newcastle United · Premier League1–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Fulham favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Newcastle United in 5 · 7 too close

1.47 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 32/31▲2.1 goals/match

1.59 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 32/311.68 goals/match

1.37 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 32/31▲1.91 xG/match

1.73 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 32/311.73 xG/match

13.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 32/3113.9 shots/match

13.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 32/3113.8 shots/match

4.72 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 32/31▲5.35 shots/match

5.09 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 32/315.35 shots/match

51.6%Possessionseason · 32/31●52.7%

6 corners/match●Cornersseason · 32/314.58 corners/match

4.66 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 32/315.16 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 32/3110.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 32/31▲29%

66%Scoring frequencyseason · 32/31▲87%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fulham57.5

Newcastle United62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fulham47.5

Newcastle United67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fulham50.8

Newcastle United41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fulham37.5

Newcastle United42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fulham7.5

Newcastle United17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fulham67.5

Newcastle United22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fulham41.2

Newcastle United40

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Fulham32 matchesNewcastle United31 matches

1.47 goals/matchGoals scored32/31▲2.1 goals/match

1.59 goals/matchGoals allowed32/311.68 goals/match

1.37 xG/matchExpected goals32/31▲1.91 xG/match

13.4 shots/matchShots32/3113.9 shots/match

4.72 shots/matchShots on target32/31▲5.35 shots/match

51.6%Possession32/31●52.7%

6 corners/match●Corners32/314.58 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10 fouls/matchFouls32/3110.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Fulham16 matchesNewcastle United15 matches

1.81 goals/matchGoals scored16/151.73 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/152.13 goals/match

1.64 xG/match▲Expected goals16/151.36 xG/match

14.6 shots/match▲Shots16/1510.5 shots/match

4.81 shots/match▲Shots on target16/154.13 shots/match

56.1%●Possession16/1550.6%

6.56 corners/match●Corners16/153.87 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.69 fouls/matchFouls16/1510.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.81 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.81 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples32 / 31home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 6 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4