PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

SC Freiburg 1–4 RB Leipzig · Bundesliga

1–4Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

RB Leipzig won 1–4.

Shots
1314
Shots on target
26
Expected goals
1.642.35
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

RB Leipzig beat SC Freiburg 4–1. Recorded in this match (SC Freiburg – RB Leipzig): shots 13–14, shots on target 2–6, expected goals 1.64–2.35, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

SC Freiburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

SC Freiburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.43 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.43 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

SC Freiburg have a visible home split

moderate

SC Freiburg's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.7 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.7 shots/match11.9 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

RB Leipzig show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

RB Leipzig's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.9 shots/match ▲ShotsSC Freiburg · RB Leipzig16.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSC FreiburgRB LeipzigBaseline
Shots11.9 shots/match16.3 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against15.1 shots/match11.4 shots/match14.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots14 shotsSC Freiburg 13 shots, RB Leipzig 14 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots6 shotsSC Freiburg 2 shots, RB Leipzig 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.64 xG2.35 xGSC Freiburg 1.64 xG, RB Leipzig 2.35 xG
  • Possession47%53%SC Freiburg 47%, RB Leipzig 53%
  • Corners8 corners4 cornersSC Freiburg 8 corners, RB Leipzig 4 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls13 foulsSC Freiburg 7 fouls, RB Leipzig 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Amadou Haidara · RB Leipzig · 9′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Henrichs · RB Leipzig · 35′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMichael Gregoritsch · SC Freiburg · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Höfler · SC Freiburg · 46′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLucas Höler · SC Freiburg · 13′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedXaver Schlager · RB Leipzig · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedVincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg · 59′ · 0.04 xG · goalMaximilian Philipp · SC Freiburg · 89′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Eggestein · SC Freiburg · 41′ · 0.05 xG · on targetLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 78′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRitsu Doan · SC Freiburg · 52′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRitsu Doan · SC Freiburg · 81′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedChristian Günter · SC Freiburg · 37′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 45′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMichael Gregoritsch · SC Freiburg · 41′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMichael Gregoritsch · SC Freiburg · 44′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 44′ · 0.16 xG · goalDani Olmo · RB Leipzig · 42′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedRoland Sallai · SC Freiburg · 76′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedAmadou Haidara · RB Leipzig · 2′ · 0.20 xG · goalLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 18′ · 0.22 xG · goalXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 88′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 25′ · 0.31 xG · on targetBenjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig · 54′ · 0.68 xG · goalLucas Höler · SC Freiburg · 41′ · 0.82 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

SC Freiburg: 13 shots, 2 on target, 1.68 xG. RB Leipzig: 14 shots, 6 on target, 2.34 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Vincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg · 59′Amadou Haidara · RB Leipzig · 2′Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 18′Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 44′Benjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig · 54′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: SC Freiburg 1.68 xG · RB Leipzig 2.34 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0SC Freiburg
2Draws
3RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga3–1
SC Freiburg — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga0–1
RB Leipzig — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga3–1
RB Leipzig — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga1–1
SC Freiburg — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: SC Freiburg favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · RB Leipzig in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

SC Freiburg28 matchesRB Leipzig28 matches
1.43 goals/matchGoals scored28/28▲ 2.29 goals/match
1.86 goals/matchGoals allowed28/28▲ 1.18 goals/match
1.51 xG/matchExpected goals28/28▲ 2.05 xG/match
11.9 shots/matchShots28/28▲ 16.3 shots/match
4.54 shots/matchShots on target28/28▲ 6.86 shots/match
45.6%Possession28/28● 57%
3.96 corners/matchCorners28/28● 6.14 corners/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls28/2810.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 6 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSC FreiburgRB Leipzig
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headSC Freiburg — RB Leipzig
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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