PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024Fri, 24 Jan 2025, 19:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricVfL WolfsburgHolstein Kiel
Shots22 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals2.09 xG/match▲0.27 xG/match
Possession70%●30%
Corners10 corners/match●3 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Konstantinos Koulierakis · VfL Wolfsburg · 38′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFinn Porath · Holstein Kiel · 9′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPhil Harres · Holstein Kiel · 13′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 18′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedShuto Machino · Holstein Kiel · 34′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Skov Olsen · VfL Wolfsburg · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Amoura · VfL Wolfsburg · 64′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Amoura · VfL Wolfsburg · 70′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 46′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Wimmer · VfL Wolfsburg · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDenis Vavro · VfL Wolfsburg · 52′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 84′ · 0.04 xG · on targetDavid Zec · Holstein Kiel · 13′ · 0.05 xG · goalKonstantinos Koulierakis · VfL Wolfsburg · 74′ · 0.05 xG · on targetLukas Nmecha · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Amoura · VfL Wolfsburg · 6′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 26′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 53′ · 0.07 xG · goalTiago Tomás · VfL Wolfsburg · 42′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Skov Olsen · VfL Wolfsburg · 49′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Amoura · VfL Wolfsburg · 56′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedSteven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel · 80′ · 0.10 xG · goalJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 73′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 45′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedSebastiaan Bornauw · VfL Wolfsburg · 75′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Wimmer · VfL Wolfsburg · 63′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Wimmer · VfL Wolfsburg · 50′ · 0.48 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

VfL Wolfsburg: 22 shots, 5 on target, 1.95 xG. Holstein Kiel: 5 shots, 2 on target, 0.21 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Patrick Wimmer · VfL Wolfsburg · 50′Jonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 53′David Zec · Holstein Kiel · 13′Steven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel · 80′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfL Wolfsburg 1.95 xG · Holstein Kiel 0.21 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Holstein Kiel's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for VfL Wolfsburg, Holstein Kiel. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Holstein Kiel's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Holstein Kiel's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.47 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.8 goals/match1.47 goals/match1.61 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for VfL Wolfsburg, Holstein Kiel.

6.21 days▲Rest daysVfL Wolfsburg · Holstein Kiel6.21 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricVfL WolfsburgHolstein KielBaseline
Rest days6.21 days6.21 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

VfL Wolfsburg show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

VfL Wolfsburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.9 shots/match▲ShotsVfL Wolfsburg · Holstein Kiel10.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVfL WolfsburgHolstein KielBaseline
Shots12.9 shots/match10.6 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against13.7 shots/match16.4 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1VfL Wolfsburg
0Draws
0Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga0–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

VfL Wolfsburg favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Holstein Kiel in 0 · 3 too close

2.21 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 19/191.47 goals/match
1.79 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 19/192.53 goals/match
1.53 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 19/191.08 xG/match
1.65 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 19/191.72 xG/match
12.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 19/1910.6 shots/match
13.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 19/1916.4 shots/match
4.53 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 19/194.26 shots/match
5.05 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 19/195.84 shots/match
43.8%●Possessionseason · 19/1942.7%
5.11 corners/match●Cornersseason · 19/193.53 corners/match
4.79 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 19/196.58 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/1912.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
21%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/195%
95%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 19/1979%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

VfL Wolfsburg36.1
Holstein Kiel13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

VfL Wolfsburg73.2
Holstein Kiel26.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

VfL Wolfsburg41.7
Holstein Kiel2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

VfL Wolfsburg91.7
Holstein Kiel30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

VfL Wolfsburg52.8
Holstein Kiel86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

VfL Wolfsburg69.4
Holstein Kiel2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

VfL Wolfsburg65.3
Holstein Kiel31.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

VfL Wolfsburg19 matchesHolstein Kiel19 matches
2.21 goals/match▲Goals scored19/191.47 goals/match
1.79 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/192.53 goals/match
1.53 xG/match▲Expected goals19/191.08 xG/match
12.9 shots/match▲Shots19/1910.6 shots/match
4.53 shots/match▲Shots on target19/194.26 shots/match
43.8%●Possession19/1942.7%
5.11 corners/match●Corners19/193.53 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.1 fouls/matchFouls19/1912.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

VfL Wolfsburg10 matchesHolstein Kiel9 matches
2.1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/91.56 goals/match
2.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/92.56 goals/match
1.69 xG/match▲Expected goals10/91.15 xG/match
13.7 shots/match▲Shots10/911.2 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/94.11 shots/match
48.6%●Possession10/942.3%
5.4 corners/match●Corners10/93.56 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.5 fouls/matchFouls10/912.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.21 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 24 Jan 2025, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsVfL WolfsburgHolstein Kiel
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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