PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

1. FSV Mainz 05 2–0 VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga

2–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FSV Mainz 05 won 2–0.

Shots
1110
Shots on target
45
Expected goals
1.891.08
Possession
44%56%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FSV Mainz 05 beat VfB Stuttgart 2–0. Recorded in this match (1. FSV Mainz 05 – VfB Stuttgart): shots 11–10, shots on target 4–5, expected goals 1.89–1.08, possession 44%–56%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

VfB Stuttgart's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.89 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.89 goals/match1.66 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

VfB Stuttgart have a visible away split

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.9 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.9 shots/match14.3 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for 1. FSV Mainz 05, VfB Stuttgart.

6 days ▲Rest days1. FSV Mainz 05 · VfB Stuttgart7 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric1. FSV Mainz 05VfB StuttgartBaseline
Rest days6 days7 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots10 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 11 shots, VfB Stuttgart 10 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots5 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 4 shots, VfB Stuttgart 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.89 xG1.08 xG1. FSV Mainz 05 1.89 xG, VfB Stuttgart 1.08 xG
  • Possession44%56%1. FSV Mainz 05 44%, VfB Stuttgart 56%
  • Corners9 corners2 corners1. FSV Mainz 05 9 corners, VfB Stuttgart 2 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls8 fouls1. FSV Mainz 05 12 fouls, VfB Stuttgart 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Nadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 3′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJacob Bruun Larsen · VfB Stuttgart · 9′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAndreas Hanche Olsen · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 77′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetErmedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPaul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 59′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPhillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart · 27′ · 0.05 xG · on targetDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 67′ · 0.07 xG · on targetFabian Rieder · VfB Stuttgart · 84′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 32′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedPaul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 68′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedStefan Bell · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 80′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedNick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart · 67′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Hanche Olsen · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 65′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedErmedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 90′ · 0.15 xG · on targetNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 79′ · 0.22 xG · on targetNelson Weiper · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 29′ · 0.29 xG · goalAnthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 86′ · 0.35 xG · goalDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 14′ · 0.44 xG · off target or blockedNelson Weiper · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 3′ · 0.58 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FSV Mainz 05: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.93 xG. VfB Stuttgart: 10 shots, 5 on target, 1.10 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Nelson Weiper · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 29′Anthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 86′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.93 xG · VfB Stuttgart 1.10 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

01. FSV Mainz 05
2Draws
3VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga3–3
VfB Stuttgart — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga3–1
1. FSV Mainz 05 — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga1–3
1. FSV Mainz 05 — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga1–4
VfB Stuttgart — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FSV Mainz 05 favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · VfB Stuttgart in 7 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FSV Mainz 0519 matchesVfB Stuttgart19 matches
1.74 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲ 1.89 goals/match
1.21 goals/match ▲Goals allowed19/191.47 goals/match
1.44 xG/matchExpected goals19/19▲ 1.93 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShots19/19▲ 14.3 shots/match
4.42 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲ 5.63 shots/match
47.8%Possession19/19● 58.9%
4.89 corners/matchCorners19/19● 5.37 corners/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls19/1910.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Jan 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FSV Mainz 05VfB Stuttgart
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-head1. FSV Mainz 05 — VfB Stuttgart
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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