PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

SC Freiburg 1–2 FC Bayern München · Bundesliga

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München won 1–2.

Shots
77
Shots on target
23
Expected goals
0.350.54
Possession
35%65%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Bayern München beat SC Freiburg 2–1. Recorded in this match (SC Freiburg – FC Bayern München): shots 7–7, shots on target 2–3, expected goals 0.35–0.54, possession 35%–65%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

SC Freiburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

SC Freiburg's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots8.2 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

SC Freiburg show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

SC Freiburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.5 shots/match ▲ShotsSC Freiburg · FC Bayern München19.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSC FreiburgFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Shots12.5 shots/match19.3 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against13.1 shots/match5.11 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

FC Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

47.9%PossessionSC Freiburg · FC Bayern München● 71.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 23.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricSC FreiburgFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Possession47.9%71.2%48.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots7 shotsSC Freiburg 7 shots, FC Bayern München 7 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots3 shotsSC Freiburg 2 shots, FC Bayern München 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.35 xG0.54 xGSC Freiburg 0.35 xG, FC Bayern München 0.54 xG
  • Possession35%65%SC Freiburg 35%, FC Bayern München 65%
  • Corners2 corners4 cornersSC Freiburg 2 corners, FC Bayern München 4 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls9 foulsSC Freiburg 15 fouls, FC Bayern München 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Maximilian Eggestein · SC Freiburg · 6′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKingsley Coman · FC Bayern München · 82′ · 0.02 xG · on targetVincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMatthias Ginter · SC Freiburg · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLucas Höler · SC Freiburg · 65′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMerlin Röhl · SC Freiburg · 68′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEric Dier · FC Bayern München · 71′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 15′ · 0.06 xG · goalSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 58′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJunior Adamu · SC Freiburg · 87′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 13′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMatthias Ginter · SC Freiburg · 68′ · 0.15 xG · goalKim Min-jae · FC Bayern München · 54′ · 0.67 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

SC Freiburg: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.37 xG. FC Bayern München: 7 shots, 3 on target, 0.98 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Matthias Ginter · SC Freiburg · 68′Harry Kane · FC Bayern München · 15′Kim Min-jae · FC Bayern München · 54′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: SC Freiburg 0.37 xG · FC Bayern München 0.98 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0SC Freiburg
1Draws
4FC Bayern München
FC Bayern München — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga2–0
SC Freiburg — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga2–2
FC Bayern München — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga3–0
SC Freiburg — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga0–1
FC Bayern München — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga5–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: SC Freiburg favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

SC Freiburg19 matchesFC Bayern München19 matches
1.37 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲ 3.05 goals/match
1.89 goals/matchGoals allowed19/19▲ 0.84 goals/match
1.28 xG/matchExpected goals19/19▲ 2.42 xG/match
12.5 shots/matchShots19/19▲ 19.3 shots/match
4.37 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲ 7.89 shots/match
47.9%Possession19/19● 71.2%
3.84 corners/matchCorners19/19● 6.95 corners/match
8.58 fouls/matchFouls19/198.32 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Jan 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSC FreiburgFC Bayern München
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-headSC Freiburg — FC Bayern München
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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