PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

Holstein Kiel 1–3 TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga

1–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

TSG Hoffenheim won 1–3.

Shots
711
Shots on target
26
Expected goals
0.350.82
Possession
49%51%

Full time

What the match recorded

TSG Hoffenheim beat Holstein Kiel 3–1. Recorded in this match (Holstein Kiel – TSG Hoffenheim): shots 7–11, shots on target 2–6, expected goals 0.35–0.82, possession 49%–51%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Holstein Kiel's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Holstein Kiel's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.44 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match1.44 goals/match1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Holstein Kiel, TSG Hoffenheim.

3.88 days ▲Rest daysHolstein Kiel · TSG Hoffenheim2.79 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricHolstein KielTSG HoffenheimBaseline
Rest days3.88 days2.79 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

TSG Hoffenheim have a visible away split

moderate

TSG Hoffenheim's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.56 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.56 shots/match12.4 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots11 shotsHolstein Kiel 7 shots, TSG Hoffenheim 11 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots6 shotsHolstein Kiel 2 shots, TSG Hoffenheim 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.35 xG0.82 xGHolstein Kiel 0.35 xG, TSG Hoffenheim 0.82 xG
  • Possession49%51%Holstein Kiel 49%, TSG Hoffenheim 51%
  • Corners4 corners3 cornersHolstein Kiel 4 corners, TSG Hoffenheim 3 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls10 foulsHolstein Kiel 13 fouls, TSG Hoffenheim 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Magnus Knudsen · Holstein Kiel · 35′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNicolai Remberg · Holstein Kiel · 81′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFinn Porath · Holstein Kiel · 84′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBenedikt Pichler · Holstein Kiel · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTom Bischof · TSG Hoffenheim · 5′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAlexander Prass · TSG Hoffenheim · 11′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdam Hložek · TSG Hoffenheim · 56′ · 0.03 xG · goalAndrej Kramarić · TSG Hoffenheim · 82′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAndu Kelati · Holstein Kiel · 81′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMax Moerstedt · TSG Hoffenheim · 9′ · 0.05 xG · on targetPhil Harres · Holstein Kiel · 48′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedShuto Machino · Holstein Kiel · 49′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMax Moerstedt · TSG Hoffenheim · 2′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAdam Hložek · TSG Hoffenheim · 26′ · 0.06 xG · goalErencan Yardımcı · TSG Hoffenheim · 45′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedFiete Arp · Holstein Kiel · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMarko Ivezić · Holstein Kiel · 18′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAndu Kelati · Holstein Kiel · 71′ · 0.09 xG · on targetAndrej Kramarić · TSG Hoffenheim · 45′ · 0.10 xG · goalPhil Harres · Holstein Kiel · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedErencan Yardımcı · TSG Hoffenheim · 53′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMax Moerstedt · TSG Hoffenheim · 76′ · 0.19 xG · on targetAndu Kelati · Holstein Kiel · 84′ · 0.52 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Holstein Kiel: 12 shots, 3 on target, 1.08 xG. TSG Hoffenheim: 11 shots, 6 on target, 0.77 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Andu Kelati · Holstein Kiel · 84′Adam Hložek · TSG Hoffenheim · 26′Andrej Kramarić · TSG Hoffenheim · 45′Adam Hložek · TSG Hoffenheim · 56′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Holstein Kiel 1.08 xG · TSG Hoffenheim 0.77 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Holstein Kiel
0Draws
1TSG Hoffenheim
TSG Hoffenheim — Holstein Kiel · Bundesliga3–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Holstein Kiel favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · TSG Hoffenheim in 7 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Holstein Kiel18 matchesTSG Hoffenheim18 matches
1.44 goals/match ▲Goals scored18/181.28 goals/match
2.56 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲ 1.94 goals/match
1.12 xG/matchExpected goals18/18▲ 1.26 xG/match
10.9 shots/matchShots18/18▲ 12.4 shots/match
4.39 shots/matchShots on target18/184.5 shots/match
43.4%Possession18/18● 49.9%
3.56 corners/matchCorners18/18● 4.78 corners/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls18/1811.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Jan 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsHolstein KielTSG Hoffenheim
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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