Premier League · 2023Sun, 3 Sept 2023, 15:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Arsenal

WWD

3–1Full-time recap

Manchester United

WLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Arsenal	Manchester United
Shots	17 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	2.27 xG/match▲	0.94 xG/match
Possession	55%●	45%
Corners	12 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	7 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Arsenal: 17 shots, 5 on target, 2.32 xG. Manchester United: 10 shots, 2 on target, 0.96 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 2.32 xG · Manchester United 0.96 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. A second useful context is: Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

9 corners/match●CornersArsenal · Manchester United7 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Arsenal	Manchester United	Baseline
Corners	9 corners/match	7 corners/match	5.25 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Manchester United show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

16.3 shots/match▲ShotsArsenal · Manchester United16.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Arsenal	Manchester United	Baseline
Shots	16.3 shots/match	16.3 shots/match	15 shots/match
Shots against	9.5 shots/match	16.5 shots/match	14.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share.

64.3%●PossessionArsenal · Manchester United51.5%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.8 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Arsenal	Manchester United	Baseline
Possession	64.3%	51.5%	49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Arsenal

0Draws

2Manchester United

22 Jan 2023Arsenal — Manchester United · Premier League3–2

4 Sept 2022Manchester United — Arsenal · Premier League3–1

23 Apr 2022Arsenal — Manchester United · Premier League3–1

2 Dec 2021Manchester United — Arsenal · Premier League3–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Manchester United in 0 · 13 too close

2 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 4/41.25 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 4/41.75 goals/match

2.08 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 4/42.01 xG/match

0.92 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 4/41.89 xG/match

16.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 4/416.3 shots/match

9.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 4/416.5 shots/match

6.5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 4/45 shots/match

2.25 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 4/45.25 shots/match

64.3%●Possessionseason · 4/451.5%

9 corners/match●Cornersseason · 4/47 corners/match

2.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 4/46.75 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 4/410.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 4/425%

100%Scoring frequencyseason · 4/475%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal82.5

Manchester United72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal72.5

Manchester United54.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal87.5

Manchester United35.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal27.5

Manchester United67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal10

Manchester United45

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal97.5

Manchester United77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal64.4

Manchester United60.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Arsenal4 matchesManchester United4 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41.25 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.75 goals/match

2.08 xG/matchExpected goals4/42.01 xG/match

16.3 shots/matchShots4/416.3 shots/match

6.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/45 shots/match

64.3%●Possession4/451.5%

9 corners/match●Corners4/47 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9 fouls/matchFouls4/410.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Arsenal3 matchesManchester United2 matches

2.33 goals/matchGoals scored3/2—

1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed3/2—

2.1 xG/matchExpected goals3/2—

17 shots/matchShots3/2—

7.67 shots/matchShots on target3/2—

68%Possession3/2—

9.33 corners/matchCorners3/2—

—Cards0/0—

8.67 fouls/matchFouls3/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.06 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.06 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited

Season samples4 / 4home / away teams

Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 3 Sept 2023, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4