Premier League · 2023Sat, 26 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Manchester United

3–2Full-time recap

Nottingham Forest

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Manchester United	Nottingham Forest
Shots	18 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	9 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	2.83 xG/match▲	1.21 xG/match
Possession	66%●	34%
Corners	11 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Manchester United: 18 shots, 9 on target, 2.82 xG. Nottingham Forest: 9 shots, 4 on target, 1.19 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester United 2.82 xG · Nottingham Forest 1.19 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester United have recorded the higher season possession share. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Manchester United have recorded the higher season possession share.

53.7%●PossessionManchester United · Nottingham Forest35.3%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 18.3 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Manchester United	Nottingham Forest	Baseline
Possession	53.7%	35.3%	49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Manchester United

0Draws

0Nottingham Forest

16 Apr 2023Nottingham Forest — Manchester United · Premier League0–2

27 Dec 2022Manchester United — Nottingham Forest · Premier League3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Manchester United favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 0 · 13 too close

1.33 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 3/31.67 goals/match

1.33 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 3/32 goals/match

2.37 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 3/31.26 xG/match

1.77 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 3/31.39 xG/match

18.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 3/310.3 shots/match

16.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 3/313.3 shots/match

6 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 3/33.33 shots/match

5.33 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 3/36.33 shots/match

53.7%●Possessionseason · 3/335.3%

8.33 corners/match●Cornersseason · 3/34 corners/match

5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 3/38.67 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 3/39.33 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

33%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 3/30%

67%Scoring frequencyseason · 3/3100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester United65.4

Nottingham Forest11.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester United68

Nottingham Forest26.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester United41

Nottingham Forest29.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester United80.8

Nottingham Forest42.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester United73.1

Nottingham Forest15.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester United88.5

Nottingham Forest23.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester United80.8

Nottingham Forest15.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Manchester United3 matchesNottingham Forest3 matches

1.33 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲1.67 goals/match

1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32 goals/match

2.37 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31.26 xG/match

18.3 shots/match▲Shots3/310.3 shots/match

6 shots/match▲Shots on target3/33.33 shots/match

53.7%●Possession3/335.3%

8.33 corners/match●Corners3/34 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12 fouls/matchFouls3/39.33 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Manchester United2 matchesNottingham Forest2 matches

—Goals scored2/2—

—Goals allowed2/2—

—Expected goals2/2—

—Shots2/2—

—Shots on target2/2—

—Possession2/2—

—Corners2/2—

—Cards0/0—

—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.8 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited

Season samples3 / 3home / away teams

Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 26 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4