PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sat, 2 Sept 2023, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricChelseaNottingham Forest
Shots21 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match3 shots/match▲
Expected goals2.3 xG/match▲0.76 xG/match
Possession76%●24%
Corners7 corners/match●0 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Orel Mangala · Nottingham Forest · 43′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRyan Yates · Nottingham Forest · 48′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Fernández · Chelsea · 45′ · 0.02 xG · on targetNoni Madueke · Chelsea · 78′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMykhailo Mudryk · Chelsea · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAxel Disasi · Chelsea · 64′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 89′ · 0.03 xG · on targetEnzo Fernández · Chelsea · 1′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedConor Gallagher · Chelsea · 16′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRaheem Sterling · Chelsea · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRaheem Sterling · Chelsea · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedThiago Silva · Chelsea · 86′ · 0.06 xG · on targetBen Chilwell · Chelsea · 37′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Fernández · Chelsea · 45′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMoisés Caicedo · Chelsea · 53′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedIan Maatsen · Chelsea · 88′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Fernández · Chelsea · 35′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedTaiwo Awoniyi · Nottingham Forest · 31′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAxel Disasi · Chelsea · 54′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Jackson · Chelsea · 39′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedTaiwo Awoniyi · Nottingham Forest · 26′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Jackson · Chelsea · 45′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedBen Chilwell · Chelsea · 22′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Jackson · Chelsea · 56′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedRaheem Sterling · Chelsea · 2′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 48′ · 0.42 xG · goalNicolas Jackson · Chelsea · 83′ · 0.47 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Chelsea: 21 shots, 2 on target, 2.32 xG. Nottingham Forest: 7 shots, 3 on target, 0.74 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Anthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 48′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Chelsea 2.32 xG · Nottingham Forest 0.74 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.

71%●PossessionChelsea · Nottingham Forest32.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 38.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricChelseaNottingham ForestBaseline
Possession71%32.5%49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Nottingham Forest show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

16.8 shots/match▲ShotsChelsea · Nottingham Forest9.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricChelseaNottingham ForestBaseline
Shots16.8 shots/match9.5 shots/match15.1 shots/match
Shots against10.8 shots/match15.3 shots/match15.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Nottingham Forest have a visible away split

weak

Nottingham Forest's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

7.33 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season9.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots7.33 shots/match9.5 shots/match15.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Chelsea
2Draws
0Nottingham Forest
Chelsea — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–2
Nottingham Forest — Chelsea · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Chelsea favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 0 · 13 too close

1.25 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 4/41.5 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 4/41.5 goals/match
2.1 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 4/41.14 xG/match
1.07 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 4/41.62 xG/match
16.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 4/49.5 shots/match
10.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 4/415.3 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 4/43.25 shots/match
2.75 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 4/45.25 shots/match
71%●Possessionseason · 4/432.5%
6.5 corners/match●Cornersseason · 4/43 corners/match
2.75 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 4/48.25 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
9.75 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 4/49.25 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 4/425%
75%Scoring frequencyseason · 4/4100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chelsea97.5
Nottingham Forest2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chelsea50
Nottingham Forest27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chelsea78.3
Nottingham Forest48.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chelsea17.5
Nottingham Forest42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chelsea25
Nottingham Forest12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chelsea67.5
Nottingham Forest2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chelsea50
Nottingham Forest11.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Chelsea4 matchesNottingham Forest4 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲1.5 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.5 goals/match
2.1 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41.14 xG/match
16.8 shots/match▲Shots4/49.5 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/43.25 shots/match
71%●Possession4/432.5%
6.5 corners/match●Corners4/43 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.75 fouls/matchFouls4/49.25 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Chelsea3 matchesNottingham Forest3 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored3/31.33 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/31.67 goals/match
1.97 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31.05 xG/match
16.7 shots/match▲Shots3/37.33 shots/match
4.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/33 shots/match
69.3%●Possession3/326.7%
5.67 corners/match●Corners3/32 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10 fouls/matchFouls3/310.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.79 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 Sept 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsChelseaNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath