PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Chelsea 0–1 Nottingham Forest · Premier League

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Nottingham Forest won 0–1.

Shots
217
Shots on target
23
Expected goals
2.30.76
Possession
76%24%

Full time

What the match recorded

Nottingham Forest beat Chelsea 1–0. Recorded in this match (Chelsea – Nottingham Forest): shots 21–7, shots on target 2–3, expected goals 2.3–0.76, possession 76%–24%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.

71% ●PossessionChelsea · Nottingham Forest32.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 38.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricChelseaNottingham ForestBaseline
Possession71%32.5%49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Nottingham Forest show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

16.8 shots/match ▲ShotsChelsea · Nottingham Forest9.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricChelseaNottingham ForestBaseline
Shots16.8 shots/match9.5 shots/match15.1 shots/match
Shots against10.8 shots/match15.3 shots/match15.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Nottingham Forest have a visible away split

weak

Nottingham Forest's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

7.33 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season9.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots7.33 shots/match9.5 shots/match15.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots7 shotsChelsea 21 shots, Nottingham Forest 7 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots3 shotsChelsea 2 shots, Nottingham Forest 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.3 xG0.76 xGChelsea 2.3 xG, Nottingham Forest 0.76 xG
  • Possession76%24%Chelsea 76%, Nottingham Forest 24%
  • Corners7 corners0 cornersChelsea 7 corners, Nottingham Forest 0 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls9 foulsChelsea 10 fouls, Nottingham Forest 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Orel Mangala · Nottingham Forest · 43′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRyan Yates · Nottingham Forest · 48′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Fernández · Chelsea · 45′ · 0.02 xG · on targetNoni Madueke · Chelsea · 78′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMykhailo Mudryk · Chelsea · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAxel Disasi · Chelsea · 64′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 89′ · 0.03 xG · on targetEnzo Fernández · Chelsea · 1′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedConor Gallagher · Chelsea · 16′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRaheem Sterling · Chelsea · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRaheem Sterling · Chelsea · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedThiago Silva · Chelsea · 86′ · 0.06 xG · on targetBen Chilwell · Chelsea · 37′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Fernández · Chelsea · 45′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMoisés Caicedo · Chelsea · 53′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedIan Maatsen · Chelsea · 88′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Fernández · Chelsea · 35′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedTaiwo Awoniyi · Nottingham Forest · 31′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAxel Disasi · Chelsea · 54′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Jackson · Chelsea · 39′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedTaiwo Awoniyi · Nottingham Forest · 26′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Jackson · Chelsea · 45′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedBen Chilwell · Chelsea · 22′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Jackson · Chelsea · 56′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedRaheem Sterling · Chelsea · 2′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 48′ · 0.42 xG · goalNicolas Jackson · Chelsea · 83′ · 0.47 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Chelsea: 21 shots, 2 on target, 2.32 xG. Nottingham Forest: 7 shots, 3 on target, 0.74 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Anthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 48′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Chelsea 2.32 xG · Nottingham Forest 0.74 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Chelsea
2Draws
0Nottingham Forest
Chelsea — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–2
Nottingham Forest — Chelsea · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Chelsea favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 0 · 11 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Chelsea4 matchesNottingham Forest4 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲ 1.5 goals/match
1.25 goals/match ▲Goals allowed4/41.5 goals/match
2.1 xG/match ▲Expected goals4/41.14 xG/match
16.8 shots/match ▲Shots4/49.5 shots/match
4.5 shots/match ▲Shots on target4/43.25 shots/match
71% ●Possession4/432.5%
6.5 corners/match ●Corners4/43 corners/match
9.75 fouls/matchFouls4/49.25 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 Sept 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsChelseaNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headChelsea — Nottingham Forest
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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