PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sat, 2 Sept 2023, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
5–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricManchester CityFulham
Shots7 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Expected goals2.26 xG/match▲1.45 xG/match
Possession68%●32%
Corners4 corners/match5 corners/match●
Fouls12 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Bobby De Cordova-Reid · Fulham · 47′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNathan Aké · Manchester City · 45′ · 0.03 xG · goalRaúl Jiménez · Fulham · 33′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 30′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJulián Alvarez · Manchester City · 64′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRaúl Jiménez · Fulham · 74′ · 0.13 xG · on targetErling Haaland · Manchester City · 90′ · 0.20 xG · goalLuke Harris · Fulham · 60′ · 0.27 xG · on targetBobby De Cordova-Reid · Fulham · 33′ · 0.40 xG · on targetErling Haaland · Manchester City · 58′ · 0.51 xG · goalJulián Alvarez · Manchester City · 31′ · 0.55 xG · goalErling Haaland · Manchester City · 70′ · 0.82 xG · goalTim Ream · Fulham · 33′ · 0.92 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Manchester City: 7 shots, 5 on target, 2.27 xG. Fulham: 6 shots, 4 on target, 1.80 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Julián Alvarez · Manchester City · 31′Nathan Aké · Manchester City · 45′Erling Haaland · Manchester City · 58′Erling Haaland · Manchester City · 70′Erling Haaland · Manchester City · 90′Tim Ream · Fulham · 33′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester City 2.27 xG · Fulham 1.80 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fulham's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Fulham show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Fulham's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

17 shots/match▲ShotsManchester City · Fulham8.25 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricManchester CityFulhamBaseline
Shots17 shots/match8.25 shots/match15.1 shots/match
Shots against6.25 shots/match15.5 shots/match15.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

68%●PossessionManchester City · Fulham43.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 24.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricManchester CityFulhamBaseline
Possession68%43.8%49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Manchester City
0Draws
0Fulham
Fulham — Manchester City · Premier League1–2
Manchester City — Fulham · Premier League2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Manchester City favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Fulham in 0 · 13 too close

2.75 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 4/41 goals/match
0.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 4/42.5 goals/match
2.24 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 4/40.99 xG/match
0.69 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 4/43.03 xG/match
17 shots/matchShotsseason · 4/48.25 shots/match
6.25 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 4/415.5 shots/match
6.5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 4/42.75 shots/match
2 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 4/48.25 shots/match
68%●Possessionseason · 4/443.8%
6 corners/match●Cornersseason · 4/44.25 corners/match
3 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 4/46.75 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
8.75 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 4/49 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 4/425%
100%Scoring frequencyseason · 4/475%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester City92.5
Fulham22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester City83.3
Fulham15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester City95.8
Fulham17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester City27.5
Fulham2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester City2.5
Fulham7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester City60
Fulham30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester City55.6
Fulham13.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Manchester City4 matchesFulham4 matches
2.75 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/42.5 goals/match
2.24 xG/match▲Expected goals4/40.99 xG/match
17 shots/match▲Shots4/48.25 shots/match
6.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/42.75 shots/match
68%●Possession4/443.8%
6 corners/match●Corners4/44.25 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
8.75 fouls/matchFouls4/49 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Manchester City2 matchesFulham3 matches
—Goals scored2/31.33 goals/match
—Goals allowed2/32.33 goals/match
—Expected goals2/31.17 xG/match
—Shots2/37.67 shots/match
—Shots on target2/33 shots/match
—Possession2/340%
—Corners2/34 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
—Fouls2/37.67 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 Sept 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsManchester CityFulham
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Manchester City vs Fulham — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath