Premier League · 2023Sat, 7 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Manchester United

WLLWL

2–1Full-time recap

Brentford

DDLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Manchester United	Brentford
Shots	21 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.43 xG/match▲	0.95 xG/match
Possession	64%●	36%
Corners	7 corners/match●	5 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	17 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Manchester United: 19 shots, 6 on target, 1.07 xG. Brentford: 10 shots, 2 on target, 0.84 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester United 1.07 xG · Brentford 0.84 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brentford's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Brentford's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brentford's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	1.38 goals/match	1.26 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Manchester United

0Draws

1Brentford

5 Apr 2023Manchester United — Brentford · Premier League1–0

13 Aug 2022Brentford — Manchester United · Premier League4–0

2 May 2022Manchester United — Brentford · Premier League3–0

19 Jan 2022Brentford — Manchester United · Premier League1–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Manchester United favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Brentford in 6 · 4 too close

1.13 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 8/8▲1.38 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 8/81.5 goals/match

1.59 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 8/8▲1.77 xG/match

1.53 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 8/8▲1.23 xG/match

16.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 8/814.1 shots/match

13.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/813.6 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/84.25 shots/match

4.75 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 8/8▲4.38 shots/match

53.6%●Possessionseason · 8/849%

7.25 corners/match●Cornersseason · 8/85.13 corners/match

5.75 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 8/8▲4.88 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/810.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

25%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/813%

75%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/8▲88%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester United72.5

Brentford52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester United55.8

Brentford48.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester United46.7

Brentford50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester United67.5

Brentford57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester United17.5

Brentford37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester United92.5

Brentford37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester United59.4

Brentford41.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Manchester United8 matchesBrentford8 matches

1.13 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1.38 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed8/81.5 goals/match

1.59 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲1.77 xG/match

16.3 shots/match▲Shots8/814.1 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target8/84.25 shots/match

53.6%●Possession8/849%

7.25 corners/match●Corners8/85.13 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.4 fouls/matchFouls8/810.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Manchester United5 matchesBrentford4 matches

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/41.25 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/4▲1 goals/match

1.75 xG/matchExpected goals5/41.76 xG/match

17.4 shots/match▲Shots5/414.3 shots/match

5.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/44.5 shots/match

60.4%●Possession5/446%

8.8 corners/match●Corners5/46 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/412.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.04 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples8 / 8home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4