Premier League · 2023Sun, 1 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Nottingham Forest

WLWDL

1–1Full-time recap

Brentford

WDDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Brentford
Shots	6 shots/match	18 shots/match▲
Shots on target	1 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.46 xG/match	1.66 xG/match▲
Possession	41%	59%●
Corners	1 corners/match	11 corners/match●
Fouls	6 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 6 shots, 1 on target, 0.45 xG. Brentford: 18 shots, 3 on target, 1.64 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 0.45 xG · Brentford 1.64 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brentford's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Brentford's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brentford's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.43 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	1.43 goals/match	1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest have a visible home split

weak

Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season9.71 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	12 shots/match	9.71 shots/match	14.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Nottingham Forest show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.71 shots/match▲ShotsNottingham Forest · Brentford14.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Brentford	Baseline
Shots	9.71 shots/match	14.6 shots/match	14.7 shots/match
Shots against	13.7 shots/match	12.6 shots/match	13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Nottingham Forest

1Draws

1Brentford

29 Apr 2023Brentford — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–1

5 Nov 2022Nottingham Forest — Brentford · Premier League2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Brentford in 8 · 5 too close

1.14 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/7▲1.43 goals/match

1.43 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/71.43 goals/match

0.96 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 7/7▲1.89 xG/match

1.43 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 7/7▲1.2 xG/match

9.71 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/7▲14.6 shots/match

13.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 7/7▲12.6 shots/match

3 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲4.43 shots/match

4.71 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/7▲3.86 shots/match

37.1%Possessionseason · 7/7●50.9%

3.43 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/7●5.14 corners/match

7.71 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 7/7▲4.57 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/710 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/714%

86%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/786%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest7.5

Brentford57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest25.8

Brentford47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest51.7

Brentford65

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest32.5

Brentford52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest32.5

Brentford17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest7.5

Brentford42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest16.9

Brentford36.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest7 matchesBrentford7 matches

1.14 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.43 goals/match

1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed7/71.43 goals/match

0.96 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲1.89 xG/match

9.71 shots/matchShots7/7▲14.6 shots/match

3 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲4.43 shots/match

37.1%Possession7/7●50.9%

3.43 corners/matchCorners7/7●5.14 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFouls7/710 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Nottingham Forest3 matchesBrentford3 matches

1.33 goals/matchGoals scored3/31.33 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲0.67 goals/match

0.85 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲2.03 xG/match

12 shots/matchShots3/3▲15.3 shots/match

3 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲5 shots/match

45.7%Possession3/3●49.3%

4 corners/matchCorners3/3●6.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9 fouls/matchFouls3/311.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.85 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples7 / 7home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Oct 2023, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4