PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Nottingham Forest 1–1 Brentford · Premier League

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Nottingham Forest and Brentford drew 1–1.

Shots
618
Shots on target
15
Expected goals
0.461.66
Possession
41%59%

Full time

What the match recorded

Nottingham Forest and Brentford drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Nottingham Forest – Brentford): shots 6–18, shots on target 1–5, expected goals 0.46–1.66, possession 41%–59%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Brentford's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brentford's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.43 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.43 goals/match1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest have a visible home split

weak

Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season9.71 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12 shots/match9.71 shots/match14.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Nottingham Forest show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.71 shots/match ▲ShotsNottingham Forest · Brentford14.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNottingham ForestBrentfordBaseline
Shots9.71 shots/match14.6 shots/match14.7 shots/match
Shots against13.7 shots/match12.6 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots6 shots18 shotsNottingham Forest 6 shots, Brentford 18 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot5 shotsNottingham Forest 1 shot, Brentford 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.46 xG1.66 xGNottingham Forest 0.46 xG, Brentford 1.66 xG
  • Possession41%59%Nottingham Forest 41%, Brentford 59%
  • Corners1 corner11 cornersNottingham Forest 1 corner, Brentford 11 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls10 foulsNottingham Forest 6 fouls, Brentford 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Frank Onyeka · Brentford · 76′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedChristian Nørgaard · Brentford · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Sangaré · Nottingham Forest · 27′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEthan Pinnock · Brentford · 40′ · 0.03 xG · on targetVitaly Janelt · Brentford · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKeane Lewis-Potter · Brentford · 53′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNicolás Domínguez · Nottingham Forest · 65′ · 0.03 xG · goalWilly Boly · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEthan Pinnock · Brentford · 81′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNeal Maupay · Brentford · 76′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMurillo · Nottingham Forest · 8′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKristoffer Ajer · Brentford · 85′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedChristian Nørgaard · Brentford · 26′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 24′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olakigbe · Brentford · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedNeal Maupay · Brentford · 87′ · 0.09 xG · on targetNeal Maupay · Brentford · 90′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 89′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedChristian Nørgaard · Brentford · 58′ · 0.17 xG · goalYoane Wissa · Brentford · 90′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedYoane Wissa · Brentford · 52′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedChristian Nørgaard · Brentford · 45′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 6 shots, 1 on target, 0.45 xG. Brentford: 18 shots, 3 on target, 1.64 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Nicolás Domínguez · Nottingham Forest · 65′Christian Nørgaard · Brentford · 58′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 0.45 xG · Brentford 1.64 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Nottingham Forest
1Draws
1Brentford
Brentford — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–1
Nottingham Forest — Brentford · Premier League2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nottingham Forest favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Brentford in 8 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest7 matchesBrentford7 matches
1.14 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲ 1.43 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed7/71.43 goals/match
0.96 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲ 1.89 xG/match
9.71 shots/matchShots7/7▲ 14.6 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲ 4.43 shots/match
37.1%Possession7/7● 50.9%
3.43 corners/matchCorners7/7● 5.14 corners/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls7/710 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Oct 2023, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNottingham ForestBrentford
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headNottingham Forest — Brentford
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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