PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sat, 7 Oct 2023, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCrystal PalaceNottingham Forest
Shots8 shots/match16 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.81 xG/match1.05 xG/match▲
Possession52%●48%
Corners3 corners/match7 corners/match●
Fouls7 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Harry Toffolo · Nottingham Forest · 15′ · 0.01 xG · on targetSerge Aurier · Nottingham Forest · 18′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace · 69′ · 0.01 xG · on targetSerge Aurier · Nottingham Forest · 16′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOrel Mangala · Nottingham Forest · 52′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJordan Ayew · Crystal Palace · 73′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 28′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGonzalo Montiel · Nottingham Forest · 61′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNathaniel Clyne · Crystal Palace · 81′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 86′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNicolás Domínguez · Nottingham Forest · 89′ · 0.03 xG · on targetWilly Boly · Nottingham Forest · 52′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedCheikhou Kouyaté · Nottingham Forest · 85′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGonzalo Montiel · Nottingham Forest · 78′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedOrel Mangala · Nottingham Forest · 22′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJesurun Rak-Sakyi · Crystal Palace · 41′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedWilly Boly · Nottingham Forest · 61′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJesurun Rak-Sakyi · Crystal Palace · 67′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJordan Ayew · Crystal Palace · 70′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 21′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMurillo · Nottingham Forest · 45′ · 0.19 xG · on targetJean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace · 63′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedJordan Ayew · Crystal Palace · 33′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedMurillo · Nottingham Forest · 45′ · 0.29 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Crystal Palace: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.78 xG. Nottingham Forest: 16 shots, 5 on target, 1.08 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Crystal Palace 0.78 xG · Nottingham Forest 1.08 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1 goals/match1.26 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Crystal Palace
1Draws
1Nottingham Forest
Crystal Palace — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–1
Nottingham Forest — Crystal Palace · Premier League1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Crystal Palace favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 2 · 4 too close

0.88 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 8/8▲1 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 8/81.25 goals/match
1.12 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 8/80.97 xG/match
1.35 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 8/81.35 xG/match
12.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 8/810.5 shots/match
13.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/813 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/83.25 shots/match
3.5 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 8/84.38 shots/match
44.6%●Possessionseason · 8/838.5%
3.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/8●3.88 corners/match
5.75 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 8/87.13 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/811 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/825%
63%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/8▲75%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Crystal Palace27.5
Nottingham Forest15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Crystal Palace31.7
Nottingham Forest18.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Crystal Palace71.7
Nottingham Forest61.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Crystal Palace52.5
Nottingham Forest42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace30
Nottingham Forest45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace7.5
Nottingham Forest17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Crystal Palace28.1
Nottingham Forest21.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Crystal Palace8 matchesNottingham Forest8 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.25 goals/match
1.12 xG/match▲Expected goals8/80.97 xG/match
12.3 shots/match▲Shots8/810.5 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.25 shots/match
44.6%●Possession8/838.5%
3.5 corners/matchCorners8/8●3.88 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.8 fouls/matchFouls8/811 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Crystal Palace4 matchesNottingham Forest5 matches
0.75 goals/matchGoals scored4/5▲0.8 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/51.4 goals/match
1.06 xG/matchExpected goals4/51.05 xG/match
11.3 shots/match▲Shots4/59.6 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/53.4 shots/match
48.3%●Possession4/534.2%
2.75 corners/matchCorners4/5●3.8 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.8 fouls/matchFouls4/512.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.15 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Oct 2023, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCrystal PalaceNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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