PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sat, 7 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Everton

LDLWL
3–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricEvertonBournemouth
Shots25 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Expected goals2.49 xG/match▲0.69 xG/match
Possession47%53%●
Corners8 corners/match●7 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Ashley Young · Everton · 44′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Tavernier · Bournemouth · 48′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDominic Solanke · Bournemouth · 13′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMiloš Kerkez · Bournemouth · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJack Harrison · Everton · 37′ · 0.02 xG · goalJames Garner · Everton · 76′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJack Harrison · Everton · 22′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJames Garner · Everton · 33′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDango Ouattara · Bournemouth · 35′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDominic Solanke · Bournemouth · 72′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAmadou Onana · Everton · 75′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Tavernier · Bournemouth · 89′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDwight McNeil · Everton · 16′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton · 59′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJames Garner · Everton · 71′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDominic Solanke · Bournemouth · 72′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJack Harrison · Everton · 18′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedVitaliy Mykolenko · Everton · 37′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAshley Young · Everton · 44′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAbdoulaye Doucouré · Everton · 73′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAmadou Onana · Everton · 75′ · 0.05 xG · on targetPhilip Billing · Bournemouth · 31′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAbdoulaye Doucouré · Everton · 47′ · 0.07 xG · on targetAbdoulaye Doucouré · Everton · 18′ · 0.08 xG · on targetKieffer Moore · Bournemouth · 82′ · 0.10 xG · on targetKieffer Moore · Bournemouth · 87′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAmadou Onana · Everton · 45′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJames Garner · Everton · 8′ · 0.15 xG · goalDominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton · 45′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedJack Harrison · Everton · 60′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedDominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton · 64′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedAbdoulaye Doucouré · Everton · 62′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedDwight McNeil · Everton · 77′ · 0.19 xG · on targetIlya Zabarnyi · Bournemouth · 77′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedBeto · Everton · 90′ · 0.32 xG · off target or blockedAbdoulaye Doucouré · Everton · 60′ · 0.34 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Everton: 25 shots, 8 on target, 2.51 xG. Bournemouth: 11 shots, 3 on target, 0.66 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′James Garner · Everton · 8′Jack Harrison · Everton · 37′Abdoulaye Doucouré · Everton · 60′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Everton 2.51 xG · Bournemouth 0.66 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Everton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Everton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Everton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Everton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.13 goals/match1.26 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Everton show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Everton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.6 shots/match▲ShotsEverton · Bournemouth11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricEvertonBournemouthBaseline
Shots16.6 shots/match11.8 shots/match14 shots/match
Shots against11.4 shots/match18.4 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Everton
0Draws
1Bournemouth
Everton — Bournemouth · Premier League1–0
Bournemouth — Everton · Premier League3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Everton favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Bournemouth in 0 · 4 too close

1.13 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 8/80.63 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 8/82.25 goals/match
1.87 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 8/81.12 xG/match
1.3 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 8/82.34 xG/match
16.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 8/811.8 shots/match
11.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 8/818.4 shots/match
5.5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/83.88 shots/match
3.88 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 8/86.5 shots/match
45.9%●Possessionseason · 8/843.5%
5.63 corners/match●Cornersseason · 8/84.75 corners/match
5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 8/85.75 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/813.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/813%
50%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/850%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Everton37.5
Bournemouth22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Everton63.3
Bournemouth20.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Everton66.7
Bournemouth12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Everton97.5
Bournemouth37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Everton67.5
Bournemouth97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Everton62.5
Bournemouth32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Everton70
Bournemouth47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Everton8 matchesBournemouth8 matches
1.13 goals/match▲Goals scored8/80.63 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/82.25 goals/match
1.87 xG/match▲Expected goals8/81.12 xG/match
16.6 shots/match▲Shots8/811.8 shots/match
5.5 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.88 shots/match
45.9%●Possession8/843.5%
5.63 corners/match●Corners8/84.75 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.6 fouls/matchFouls8/813.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Everton5 matchesBournemouth4 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/4▲1 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/42.75 goals/match
1.96 xG/match▲Expected goals5/41.3 xG/match
18 shots/match▲Shots5/412 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/44.5 shots/match
45.8%●Possession5/441.3%
5.8 corners/match●Corners5/43.75 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/414.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsEvertonBournemouth
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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